Russlands eigene Behörden auf der besetzten Krim haben mit Wirkung zum 8. Juli den wirtschaftlichen Ausnahmezustand ausgerufen und die Eisenbahnverbindung der Halbinsel zum Festland von 18 auf 7 Züge pro Tag gekürzt
https://www.newsweek.com/crimea-state-of-emergency-ukraine-strikes-12126180
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The concrete piece is the railway. The Russian carrier Grand Service Express is cutting scheduled trains to Crimea from 18 a day down to 7, with the last of the cancelled routes running July 8. Everything that’s left terminates at Kerch-Yuzhnaya by the bridge, with buses meant to carry people the rest of the way, and those buses have already been stranding passengers when there’s no fuel. Fuel sales on the peninsula have been restricted to state services since June 21. Repairing the damaged energy infrastructure is being estimated at six months minimum.
The bridge tells the same story from the road side. More than 2,400 vehicles were queued to leave at one point, roughly five-hour waits, with almost nothing coming the other way. Hotel bookings are down about a third year on year. None of this is a single strike, it’s the accumulation, the northern land corridors and the fuel chain degraded to the point where the administration would rather ration and cut services than pretend it’s a normal season. Whether that translates into military logistics strain is the thing to watch, since the same routes supply Russian forces in the south.
I track this war daily across 200+ Ukrainian and Russian-language open sources for my project [osnt.in](http://www.osnt.in), this post pulls together what stood out on Crimea’s logistics squeeze. The daily brief is open if it’s useful.
Modern economic systems are very resilient – upto a point.There’s a lot of solutions that one can bring in to keep basic services running and the price system and global supply chain work really well providing solutions you’d never think of, or never think youd need.
Up to a point…
As there is a tipping point when geographies becone isolated because of war and start to enter a process of systemic collapse when fuel, power, logisitc routes, the supply of civilian key workers all drain away. Suddenly the solution to an issue costs 10x what it would do because shipping it in is a logistical nightmare and the specialist workers have left, been killed or injured, are unhoused, or simply they take 2-3x as long to travel in between jobs crashing their productivity.
That overall productivity crash and the continually exodus and war damage is progressive – things only get worse and worse…