Wenn ein Waffenstillstand wirklich eine Pattsituation ist: Ein Gleichgewicht mit dem Iran ist das Beste, was Amerika tun kann
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/war-iran/when-cease-fire-really-stalemate?utm_campaign=re&utm_content=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=reddit_user
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[Excerpt from essay by Hussein Banai, Associate Professor of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies at Indiana University, Bloomington, and co-author of *Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the U.S.-Iran Conflict*.]
The reality is that Iran has shown it can withstand extreme pressure and impose serious costs on the United States, including when its offensive capabilities are badly degraded. Even if Washington could muster the resolve required for a protracted ground invasion, this particular administration does not have the vision and discipline such an operation would demand. All renewed conflict would do is burn through Washington’s munitions and interceptors, spark worldwide inflation, and test the patience of U.S. partners.
It is thus time for the United States to acknowledge the truth: it is caught in a stalemate. It should stop musing about how to conclusively defeat Iran and start figuring out how to peacefully manage a tricky, confrontational relationship. Such work is hardly glamorous; draws never are. But it is the only way Washington can actually keep Tehran in check and preserve U.S. power in the Middle East.
To some extent this is just the nature of conflict. We tend to judge wars through the lens of total war and total capitulation but that’s often the exception rather than the rule(ww1 ww2 overshadow our memory). Most conflicts end in an uneasy equilibrium where neither side achieves all its goals. In reality this isn’t so much an end to the conflict as a new way of managing it. That’s frustrating but it’s also how much of history actually works.
It is just like why a UFC fighter would avoid picking a fight with street thugs. Not that you can’t win, but they have nothing to lose and it is just not worth it.
Are we at the point where they go in with ground troops? Because it feels to me that’s the only way any of this begins to stabilize
Not that they wouldn’t screw that up too, but still
UAE was attacked without provocation in a conflict we had no part in. Yet Jebel Ali, Dubai South, automated customs all stayed operational. Airspace closure is standard protocol everywhere. That reliability speaks for itself.
As the article points out, this is more of a strategic stalemate that anything and the US, the Gulf States, Israel and Iran will continue to jockey of leverage the way they have for decades under the status quo.
The big loss is for Trump, politically.
Well, yes. Basically Trump got e lesson that Obama did not need 😄
And now he is very much understand he do not want any piece of it.