So werfen Sie SpaceX aus Ihrem Altersvorsorgekonto – „Im Moment stellen nur eine Handvoll KI-bezogener Aktien fast die Hälfte des Wertes des gesamten Börsenindex dar. Wenn KI-Aktien zusammenbrechen, wird auch der Wert Ihres Indexfonds einbrechen“: Ökonom
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/13/opinion/spacex-stock-ipo-ai.html
29 Kommentare
Burton G. Malkiel is a professor emeritus of economics at Princeton University. Excerpts from his [article](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/13/opinion/spacex-stock-ipo-ai.html):
*If you have a 401(k), there’s a very good chance that at least some of your money is in an index fund, a type of mutual fund that mirrors the composition of major stock markets including the Nasdaq. And that means that at some point, your retirement savings will be invested in SpaceX — no matter how you feel about it or its founder, Elon Musk.*
*It could be soon. In May, after the company’s request to be listed, the Nasdaq unveiled a rule change that allows SpaceX into its index soon after its Friday initial public offering. (The S&P 500 is requiring the company to wait at least a year.)*
*Given that so many millions of Americans are suddenly having SpaceX shares foisted upon them, I understand why some financial experts are criticizing the practice of index investing itself. Right now, just a handful of A.I.-related stocks represent almost half the value of the total stock market index. If A.I. stocks collapse, so will the worth of your index fund.*
*[…] While there is no perfect replacement for an index fund, there are some alternatives to consider.*
*One obvious alternative is to confine your investments to so-called E.S.G. funds. These funds include companies based on their environmental, social and governance practices. Putting all your money in E.S.G. funds is neither prudent nor virtuous. The problem is that there is no universally accepted definition of what constitutes good E.S.G. or a virtuous company. Different E.S.G. rating services give vastly different scores to the same company.*
*[…] You could alternatively try to construct a portfolio that is less reliant on tech and A.I. firms than the general market. For example, buy a “value” fund, which tends to hold less risky and more conservatively valued stocks. Or find a high dividend or dividend-growth fund, which may be particularly suitable for retired investors.*
*You won’t eliminate the overhyped highfliers, and you could well underperform the total market index. But you can reduce the risk in your portfolio and reduce the high concentration of the current market in new technologies.*
*If you move in that direction, I’d suggest you follow three rules. First, look at the securities held by the funds so that you are really achieving your objectives. Second, ensure that the holdings in your portfolio of funds are broadly diversified. A portfolio that is too narrow (for example, invested in just one industry) will carry extra risk. Third, and most important, make sure that the funds you buy have a low expense ratio (0.05 percent or lower). The best prediction of future performance of any fund is the expense ratio.*
Malkiel is a very well-respected and legit source. Random Walk Down Wall Street is required reading for investors. This isn’t coming from a quack.
EDIT: Went and refreshed my memory about his credentials, and people like to be spoon-fed. I feel like just citing an „economist“ in the title is a disservice. From his Wiki:
>Malkiel is the Chemical Bank Chairman’s Professor of Economics at Princeton University, and is a two-time chairman of the economics department there. He was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers (1975–1977),[1] president of the American Finance Association (1978), and dean of the Yale School of Management (1981–1988). He also spent 28 years as a director of the Vanguard Group. He is Chief Investment Officer of software-based financial advisor, Wealthfront Inc.[2] and is a member of the Investment Advisory Board for Rebalance.[3] Malkiel was elected to the American Philosophical Society in 2001.[4]
My pension fund wrote to me to state it wouldn’t be increasing in Space X. However, if there’s an AI crash all stocks go down, so I’m not optimistic as I near retirement.
mag 7 is 45% of many pension funds
SPY, VOO, and VTI won’t have it for a year, right?
The money that is going into SpaceX needs to come from other companies. There isn’t some new source of billions of dollars that got created. The outflux from other companies is going to cause their value to go down.
If they collapse it will probably take down unrelated stocks too.
There is no safe place in our current world. Stock bubble could burst any year, cash could lose value to hyper inflation. Even treasuries are teetering.
I don’t plan on retiring for 20 years, but I’m constantly told AI will replace me by then and Social Security won’t last that long either.
In addition to ESG and Value funds, if your choices are limited or you still want full index exposure, there are Equal Weight funds that invest equally in all of the companies in the index, rather than being proportional to each company’s valuation. Some people like them anyway due to how so much of the current value is skewed towards just a handful of companies (which defeats the purpose of using an index fund to diversify risk).
There are also international/global funds that focus on indices outside of the US (many of which have actually been outperforming US markets).
So *glad* the SEC has the little guys backs. I’m *sure* they will protect all the small investors and the Federal government *won’t* be bailing out the Musk Welfare Companies because they can’t *possibly* be too big to fail. 🙄
Can someone explain why SpaceX would be included in SPY. My understanding is that you must post positive GAAP earnings over the trailing four quarters combined so they’d be far away from that.
I mean I have 30+ years to retirement. If spacex or otherwise joins the S&P and then it tanks, won’t that be a good thing for me because the ETFs are basically “on sale” which works for dollar cost averaging?
If you’re close to retiring then you shouldn’t you have a low amount of equities anyway? Or is there a bigger picture market thing I’m missing?
Editorialized title, and the most important bit:
These are all legitimate reasons to worry. But in my view, it would be a mistake to abandon an indexing strategy. Timing the market is impossible. Yes, the stock market is unusually concentrated today, and it is likely to get even more so over the next period with Anthropic and OpenAI looking to go public soon.
But the market has always been concentrated. If you had invested broadly in the stock market of the late 19th century, a lot of your money would have been tied up in railroad stocks. In the late 1970s, a bunch of it would have been in oil stocks. In the late 1990s, a disproportionate share would have been in internet stocks. The overall market’s generous 10 percent investment returns over the past 100 years have been generated by less than 4 percent of all stocks. The rest have not earned returns any greater than the yield on short-term Treasury bills.
Even when the market is down, index funds outperform. From mid-1999, near the top of the internet bubble, to mid-2000, when the market bottomed out, index funds did better than actively managed funds that try to pick and choose the best stocks to hold. S&P published recent results for its index in March. Last year about 80 percent of actively managed equity funds produced returns inferior to the S&P 500 index. And the few funds that outperform in one year are not the same as those that win the next year. When the results are compounded over five-, 10- and 20-year periods, over 90 percent of active equity funds underperform the stock market index. Indexing has proved to be the best investment strategy for building wealth.
yes, that is literally the point. AI investors are pushing hard for AI companies to IPO so they can plunder retirement accounts to recoup their losses and leave the 99% holding the bag when – not if, WHEN – AI stocks all crater. And even better: the taxes of the 99% will the be used to bail out the failed AI companies!
I just re arranged my 401k. I put it in regular index funds that still have the “seasoning period” which won’t keep me safe forever but I already feel better.
As a poor, is it better to take a loan against my 401k now to survive or wait till it crashes? I wasn’t in America during the 2008 housing crisis. I’m a rookie.
A lot of my peers are liquidating their holdings in anticipation of the great correction.
You don’t need to go ESG to cut out the index and funds that tossed integrity out the window.
We need Mat levines everything but ai etf
Does anyone have a gift link?
spacex will be like a 0.10% allocation of VTI at first
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/index-funds-and-mega-cap-ipos
if you have >$100k you can do direct indexing with schwab and exclude any individual stocks you want
The fox is now in the hen house and most of the chickens are cheering it on.
This is bad advice.
There have been numerous advisors and analysts that said to avoid AI stocks over the years. If you listened to them you’ve now SIGNIFICANTLY underperformed. The AI/tech companies drove more than half of the total market gains in 2025. Wall Street, the government and mega corps are going all-in on AI, they aren’t going to let the bubble pop easily, and if anything it will just likely be a pullback and back into a long term rally, just like the dotcom/internet outcome. ALSO, IF there is an AI related crash, it’s going to pull down the entire global market; you can lessen the bleeding with safe blue chip stocks but don’t think for a second that your portfolio won’t also take a huge hit; you’re basically avoiding the huge upside for modest protection on the downside.
As for SpaceX specifically. It will only represent a few percent of most retirement ETFs that track the entire market. We are talking like 3% here. While I get that people might want to avoid Elons companies, or they believe SpaceX is overvalued and will crash, the stock has next to no impact on your retirement funds, and trying to sell off ETFs to reverse cherry pick will likely cause you far more financial losses than you would by ignoring the situation, especially when you look and see how Tesla has done even with all its scrutiny.
Why would AI collapse?
I’ve been moving away from tech stock for about 1.5 years now. Mainly buying EU ETFs now.
AI as a tech will stick around no doubt
But again even the Industrial Revolution happened over a longer period of time than people make it out to be
This is not the year where we have AI companies deliver life changing services that so many people are hyping it up to be
Protect yourselves from the down side. Always
VEU let’s go!
S&P rebalances every three months so if space x tanks, there will be less and less of it in the index, it could cause a pullback/correction but space x would eventually get rebalanced out if it craters