These polls come out daily and all have huge variance. They need to be holding polls back and releasing like 3 at a time. Every poll is roughly 2000ish Canadians. Maybe the older sampling methods are just failing for some reason to capture an accurate view of what people really feel, but they should maybe hold back a bit and try to show trends over time.
I’d like to see them ask far more policy specific questions. There is a gulf of difference between people who whole heartedly approve of Carney and the ones who still say they overall approve but feel he’s been slipping up lately and worrying them.
Edit: to all the people harping on about sample sizes, my point is moreso that they’re asking bad questions. So on any given day people with soft support for different parties may flip based on some headline they saw that day. The softness of support needs to be analyzed better, and the specific policies that are causing these little shifts need to be hammered down.
Darwin-Charles on
This is still an 8 percent lead for an Abacus poll so this really isn’t some „slowing“ of support, I guess if you’re comparing it to Abacus’s 10 percent poll a few weeks ago.
But I do expect Carney’s support to drop within the next year or two, it’ll be interested to see when we have an election. Majority or not they may want to call one by next year.
SketchingTO on
The Conservatives remain competitive except with the one group who actually votes, baby boomers. You just can’t win with a 20 pt deficit with older voters, who are the most insulated from Canada’s sluggish economy.
lcelerate on
Looks like Abacus Data confirms there has been an NDP bump although not as big as what Liaison suggested which is directionally relevant.
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These polls come out daily and all have huge variance. They need to be holding polls back and releasing like 3 at a time. Every poll is roughly 2000ish Canadians. Maybe the older sampling methods are just failing for some reason to capture an accurate view of what people really feel, but they should maybe hold back a bit and try to show trends over time.
I’d like to see them ask far more policy specific questions. There is a gulf of difference between people who whole heartedly approve of Carney and the ones who still say they overall approve but feel he’s been slipping up lately and worrying them.
Edit: to all the people harping on about sample sizes, my point is moreso that they’re asking bad questions. So on any given day people with soft support for different parties may flip based on some headline they saw that day. The softness of support needs to be analyzed better, and the specific policies that are causing these little shifts need to be hammered down.
This is still an 8 percent lead for an Abacus poll so this really isn’t some „slowing“ of support, I guess if you’re comparing it to Abacus’s 10 percent poll a few weeks ago.
But I do expect Carney’s support to drop within the next year or two, it’ll be interested to see when we have an election. Majority or not they may want to call one by next year.
The Conservatives remain competitive except with the one group who actually votes, baby boomers. You just can’t win with a 20 pt deficit with older voters, who are the most insulated from Canada’s sluggish economy.
Looks like Abacus Data confirms there has been an NDP bump although not as big as what Liaison suggested which is directionally relevant.