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    [OC] Wer gewinnt die Weltmeisterschaft 2026? Ein Modell (Elo) vs. der Wettmarkt (Polymarket)


    Werkzeug: Python + Pillow. Quelle: Polymarket (Gamma + CLOB APIs) für die Marktpreise; eine Monte-Carlo-Elo-Simulation für das Modell. Jeder Balken ist die Chance eines Teams, den Pokal zu gewinnen – blaugrün = der Markt, violett = mein Modell – mit goldenen Sternen für vergangene Titel. Es gibt eine Live-Version, die das Modell im Vergleich zum Markt bewertet, sobald die Ergebnisse eingehen: mli3w.github.io/world-vs-model. Nur Forschung/Bildung, kein Glücksspiel.

    Von Worried-Animal-4044

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    15 Kommentare

    1. Atmos56 on

      Interesting look. I think a lot of bias comes in from the market side relating to personal affiliation to the teams.

      How is elo calculated?

    2. Consistent-Soil-1818 on

      1. Spain with Cucurella and ref
      2. France
      3. Argentina
      4. Portugal
      5. England
      6. Spain without referee’s help
      7. Netherlands
      8. Brazil

    3. Low_Cut_368 on

      Very good to see the Model assigns Argentina a higher chance than France 🇦🇷🇦🇷

    6. Liambp on

      Am I reading this correctly to say that Argentina looks like the value bet while every other country apart from Spain is a bad bet while Spain is just slightly positive.

    7. ChiefCamembert on

      If Portugal had a good coach, could easily win. Top tier players in all positions this year

    8. brominou on

      I think that some parameters like the weather and more matchs in this WC will give more chances to some good teams like Morocco or other African teams. Maybe not winning but why not 😉

      It will be an exhausting competition compared to the others

    9. Connect-Camera62 on

      The fifa rankings (which is elo based) has Argentina top, followed by Spain, France then England. Why are your elo rankings different?

    10. mrpithecanthropus on

      England are always overrated in these assessments, and I say that as an Englishman

    11. emmettiow on

      I think bunch of rich overpaid footballers will win. I think the sponsors will win. I think big business will win. The caterers, security companies, TV companies. I think the fans will get ripped off more than ever.

    12. olbaze on

      Does Polymarket offer better odds for less likely outcomes? Because that could result in people putting a winning bet on a team they actually think is going to be second-place.

    14. ChiefCamembert on

      England qualifying & friendly games were absolutely horrendous. Can’t understand why they are always up there as possible winners…

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