Trump-Berater warnen vor einer möglichen chinesischen Invasion in Taiwan innerhalb von fünf Jahren nach Xi Jinpings jüngsten diplomatischen Schritten. Ein Berater behauptet, Xi betrachte Taiwan nun als nicht verhandelbar und von entscheidender Bedeutung für Chinas globale Positionierung, was Bedenken hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen auf die US-amerikanische Chipversorgung aufkommen lässt.
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/china-may-invade-taiwan-in-5-years-trump-advisers-warn-after-xi-talks-article-154339035?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=tn_orm
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Trump advisers warn of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan within five years following Xi Jinping’s recent diplomatic moves. One adviser claims Xi now sees Taiwan as non-negotiable and crucial to China’s global positioning, raising concerns about impacts on the U.S. chip supply.
The problem the CCP faces is the longer Taiwan is de facto independent the less justified reunification will look, not to mention how much more complicated pacification would be
The best time to do it was yesterday.
I honestly don’t think China will invade Taiwan. I think China will employ more of a similar tactic they used in Hong Kong, where they will slowly but surely get more pro-Beijing politicians into Taiwan’s government, where they will become de facto China.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they did it when the world cup starts. America is weak internationally right now, and it would help Putin. Their best chance of success is while trump is still in power.
It will probably depends on if KMT will control the Presidency again next election.
They will absolutely move Taiwan to have closer ties with China.
This is what US want, and invaders are extremely unrewarding according to recent history even for US themself.
As long as time is on their side they have no reason to and time is definately on their side.
I may win the lottery and grow a third arm
Quick, let’s waste our precious precision guided munitions in a useless conflict in the Middle East.
The ideal time would be 2029. The US will be totally distracted and internally conflicted because of the elections. China isn’t ready now to fight off an opposed invasion. The PLA was told to be ready by 2027, but they are somewhat delayed.
This is coming from the same cabinet that is pushing for a $1.5 *TRILLION* dollar budget for the Department of War. Nothing like the Chinese boogeyman to help secure that budget.
The advisor’s analysis doesn’t make sense to me. Why would it be a non-negotiable thing?
I see three main points that need to be considered that I think their analysis has wrong.
First, just as a face-saving measure, to put a final end to the civil war, it could be a „non-negotiable“. I have no problem believing Xi is driven by this motivation, but simply put, it’s not a strong enough motivation to justify the very significant downsides. I think it’s much easier – and maybe even better – for him to keep talking a big game without actually acting.
Second, semiconductors (and this really is the lynchpin to it all). If China thought for a second that they could gain control of the fabs and operate them then they probably would have invaded already, or at least it would be virtually guaranteed to happen. But they know they aren’t getting the fabs intact, and they know that even if they did they wouldn’t be able to operate them properly. The simple truth is that China is as dependant on TSMC as the rest of the world, and that dependency is only growing with the rise of AI, which China recognizes the importance of as well as any other country. They’re not going to sacrifice that just to unify Taiwan, unless and until they feel they have domestic capability on equal footing, and that’s almost impossible at this point. This alone makes me think they’ll never invade, and even a blockade I wouldn’t bet on (though that’s a non-zero chance).
Third, breaking the first island chain. This is a legit reason for sure. They absolutely would move on Taiwan for this reason alone, but only if the cost wasn’t too high. Unfortunately, see the previous point because it absolutely IS too high, so this isn’t a strong enough motivation, or more precisely it might be but other factors put a damper on it.
Simple conclusion: the thought that China is going to invade Taiwan in the next decade is borderline silly. They gain more by continuing to talk a big game and keep everyone off-balance, and the cost of doing so is simply too high. The only thing that will EVER alter this calculus is if/when they can produce semiconductors on par with TSMC, which is why I say „not in the next decade“ because that’s probably AT LEAST how far away they are from that, if it’s achievable at all.
I give low but non-zero odds of a blockade though. They clearly could do that, or very soon will be able to. They don’t loose the fabs that way, and it MIGHT get Taiwan to concede if it goes on long enough. The whole question there is whether the U.S. comes to Taiwan’s aid – nothing new there – so that continues to be the key question China is asking. Sadly, today, they’re a little close to knowing the answer is more likely no than yes than they did two weeks ago because the leadership of my country is absolutely stupid as hell.
warn who and with what objective?
you think he cares? of course not he isnt thinking that far ahead. he might not be persisting as a PotUS after the midterms . if he is still the PotUS he doesnt care still because his term is done.
I am sure Taiwan is very happy with the millions of jobs and billions in tax revenue/investment it created for the CCP in the prior decades.
Is there a better parasitic entity in history than the CCP?
Won’t happen. Chinese don’t need to do it. They also value stability
Lmao. No they won’t.
China needs to invade Taiwan as soon as possible, otherwise the population aging crisis will catch them and won’t have enough military-aged soldiers willing to be conscripted to join the amphibious invasion on Taiwan.
What I saw from this US-China meetup was that Taiwan is extremely important to China and China is using what leverage it currently has over trump to eek out a compromise from the US that we will abandon Taiwan in exchange for only moderate personal gain to trump.
I believe they are committed internally to taking Taiwan back and are actively preparing to do so with force if necessary.
They are only afraid of the US and I think this showed that they would like to maneuver/manipulate their biggest concern out of the equation.
What happened to 2027..?