Dieser Artikel von Kagan gilt als das bedeutendste Stück geostrategischer Analyse seit Jahrzehnten. Warum? Denn Robert Kagan ist DER intellektuelle Begründer des neokonservativen Interventionismus. Zusammen mit William Kristol gründete er PNAC – den neokonservativen Think Tank, der jahrzehntelang die US-Außenpolitik dominierte und neben anderen Schrecken die ganze Zeit für einen Krieg mit dem Iran plädierte.
In diesem Artikel gibt Kagan zu, dass die USA vom Iran strategisch besiegt wurden. Er fügt hinzu, dass es sich nicht um eine Niederlage wie in Vietnam oder Afghanistan oder gar Pearl Harbor handelt – es ist eine Niederlage, die der Position Amerikas in der Welt irreversiblen Schaden zufügen wird. Er schreibt:
"Mit der Kontrolle über die Meerenge wird Iran zum Schlüsselakteur in der Region und zu einem der Schlüsselakteure weltweit. Die Rolle Chinas und Russlands als Verbündete Irans wird gestärkt; Die Rolle der Vereinigten Staaten hat erheblich abgenommen."
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/
11 Kommentare
Robert Pape has been saying this since the day Iran closed the strait
I don’t understand why the USA keeps doing stuff that benefits other countries and diminishes its own soft and hard power.
Could become a massive win for the US if the job is finished and the Islamic Republic is replaced with a government that is not hostile towards the US.
Is the article more than two paragraphs long?
Or is that the whole thing?
This is what you get when you put tv performers in charge, and nobody around to tell Trump no. I’m not sure if Trump really thought this would be like Venezuela, or whether he just wanted to drum up business for the Military/Industrial/Tech sectors. We had lost the war before dropping the first bomb, You might as well pick a fight with a honey badger.
The only thing that will open the strait is when a barrel of oil is sold in renminbi….Good job👎
This is what scares me. Because it’s true, and it doesn’t account for the insane idea (but theoretically possible) of some sort of nuclear engagement being the only way to break Iran’s hold on the Stait. Of course that would have unimaginable geopolitical consequences but it remains on the table. Scary stuff.
I dont completely agree. Sure, Iran can use asymmetric warfare to grind hormuz passing trade to a stop, but the US can stop its outbound ships from selling to places like India and China. The US can also seize Kharg island and use it as a bargaining chip, because if thats destroyed, then iran is in an even worse position, and holding it prevents iran from saying „screw it“ and blasting UAE/Saudi oil spots.
But yes, trump has done a ridiculous level of harm to the US’s image and soft power. It will take a long time for others to trust us because of this
Having the biggest military in the world is pointless if you do not have political will to enforce your will and pay the blood price. Wars have always cost two things, blood and treasure.
The US government finds itself unable enforce it’s will because it has promoted the idea of America First. This gives no ideological cover to force projection. What is the point of sacrificing American lives if spreading democracy or freedom isn’t the aim?
Respectfully, Robert Kagan can go shove his fictional article right up his ass. Any moron with 2 functional neurons understands the Islamic Regime is almost wiped off the face of this planet.
>How on Earth did it come to this?
Compromised prez with dementia? Compromised checks & balances? Pissing off all allies? Talkshow host in charge of war? Ignoring own intelligence? Thinking you can air campaign a huge mountainous country lead by fanatics into submission? Moving before naval assets are in place? Letting a smaller country with different objectives determine pace? Misjudging interceptor burnrate?
How could it *not* come to this? The only part that did their job competently is the actual airmen in jets and the bombs.