(Meinung) Putin ist nichts ohne Krieg. Der Kontrast zu seinem Oberherrn Xi könnte nicht größer sein

“What is Putin without war?” It’s a question [Volodymyr Zelensky](https://inews.co.uk/topic/volodymyr-zelensky?ico=in-line_link) posed recently in Munich. It goes to the heart of [Vladimir Putin’s](https://inews.co.uk/topic/vladimir-putin?ico=in-line_link) predicament. Putin is defined by conflict: because he cannot build, he must destroy. It is why his country is doomed to be a failing power**.**

For years, confrontation has functioned as political glue for Putin’s failings – binding together a system short on democratic legitimacy and long on nationalist spectacle. From Chechnya to Crimea to Ukraine, war has rallied support, silenced dissent, and reframed stagnation as sacrifice.

But strip away the military parades and propaganda and Russia’s trajectory is stark: a shrinking population, a narrowing hydrocarbon-dependent economy, widening isolation, and deepening dependence on other countries.

Domestically, Putin lacks legitimacy – and he knows it. Elections have never been free and fair; true opponents are dead, jailed or exiled, from Alexei Navalny to Boris Berezovsky. Nationalism, that most potent of forces, fills the gap.

Economically, the picture is strained. At roughly $2.5trn (£1.85trn), Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s (and 60 per cent the size of the UK’s). Oil and gas still account for around 30 per cent of state revenue. And [sanctions](https://inews.co.uk/topic/sanctions-against-russia?srsltid=AfmBOorlwWCT8HCdtiGS3scNV16bhi97igllVft4QzDXSnrYQdnUoGXc&ico=in-line_link) have drained hundreds of billions. Recently, Donald Trump has handed Putin a lifeline as a result of the Iran conflict: surging oil prices and a temporary pause on sanctions.

But meanwhile, other lights on Russia’s dashboard are blinking red. Demographics, for one. The country has a shrinking, ageing population, declining life expectancy, and over 500,000 deaths annually from preventable causes like smoking and alcohol – over a decade, that’s around 1 in 30 Russians.

For all his railing against the West, Putin knows he has never faced [a ballot box he can’t stuff](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-sep-13-mn-20171-story.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com), never seriously improved living standards in an economy hooked on oil and gas, nor had a cup of tea with a foreign leader who hasn’t vetted the cup first.