Prognosen zufolge wird die Bevölkerung der EU bis zum Jahr 2100 um 11,7 % zurückgehen

We are seeing now an acute shortage of employees in different sectors. Healthcare is one of them.

Now, if that is caused by dropping population numbers, retirement of the boomer generation or just the shitty work conditions and salaries within that sector is a separate topic…

fewer workers more retirees and everyone still arguing about immigration like it’s not part of the equation

Rather small, yes? 

If this is the „extinction“ that racists use to whitewash crimes and excuse their ties to Maga or Putin, what a moral tragedy. 

Europe can survive that trend. So can all the developed world. The Earth doesn’t need runaway human population growth. 

Maybe then I’ll get my apartment.

Keep in mind, projecting current trends all the way to 2100, is not a serious attempt at a prediction. It’s just highlighting what will happen if things don’t change.

It’s almost guaranteed current trends will not continue. Birthrates won’t necessarily continue to drop forever, we don’t know, it could also be worse than expected, only thing I’m saying is likely is that current trends are unlikely to continue as in this model.

So many factors are in play. What if we cure ageing? We have successfully reversed ageing in mice, and human trials begin this year, that could reduce the effects of low birthrates. Immigration is a big factor.

Sci-fi sounding technology aside, birthrates dropped to lows as bad as today, below replacement level, in much of Europe during the interwar period (1918-1939). Then they went up again. France also saw a massive demographic transition in the 1800s, dropping near replacement levels, although still above.

It’s not completely unprecedented. The unprecedented aspect is that it is a global trend.

But getting back above replacement levels, is not impossible. I don’t agree with people that say it’s **just** culture. Yes, our different society and culture in the developed world does mean we’re probably never getting back to 3-4 births per woman. But getting back above water, around 2, I do think is feasible by greatly reducing inequality, and making life much more affordable. Say, it becomes possible for every family to live on just 1 wage for an extended period of time (doesn’t have to be the father, could be the mother too), or both parents just having part time jobs.

we need robots working for retirement benefits

And still politicians will make this about immigration (from both sides) and give zero focus to improve and benefit the general population to want and actually afford having more than one kid, if any.

I like the 0,1 accuracy for 75 year projections.

>This information comes from the population projections published by Eurostat today. The results are based on assumptions of partial convergence of EU countries’ fertility, mortality and migration patterns

Why would one expect partial convergence of fertility and migration in EU countries?

Does the article take the projected number of climate change refugees into account or is it only a birthrate/deathrate thing?

Only?

Sounds ok. Lower population is better

From what I gather, even though the number of residents is falling, housing will keep getting more expensive (sad joke) /s

How much is the projected percentage of third world immigrants by then?

This is a very optimistic number. I believe they assume recent immigration numbers continue indefinitely, and fertility rates stop lowering and rebound. However, there is no reason to believe fertility rates will rebound at this time and probably continue to decline for now, and less immigration, overall, is more likely. These numbers could be dramatically wrong.

And thats a bad thing why?