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    Polymarket-Händler geben eine 12-prozentige Chance, dass Strategy dieses Jahr Bitcoin verkauft

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    19 Kommentare

    1. Zigxy on

      Whether it’s a good investment or not, 12% seems wildly high

      Especially given the company’s multi-billion dollar cash reserve. What would be the point?

    2. habbadee on

      You can put all your money on the under. Mike ain’t selling Bitcoin unless he absolutely has to, and nothing can happen that could even possibly make him have to until 2028 when the first of the converts come due. Sell your organs and bet the under here. Easy money.

    3. Sufficient_Fuel5269 on

      They have always maintained that it is a very long-term investment… who is that 12%? 🧐

    4. CoolDad859 on

      What would stop anyone at MicroStrategy with inside knowledge (including the company itself) from betting on this?

      Are we entering a world where fake bets are posted just to bleed poor and middle class schmucks even more?

    5. Urc0mp on

      Michael Sailor should buy all the sell bets he can and then sell 1 BTC. Could use the profit to buy more bitcoin. That’s what a real bitcoin maximalist would do.

    7. not420guilty on

      Poly market is a scam. If you are not an insider then you are being used.

    8. cashflashmil on

      12% feels fair, maybe even a bit high.

      If Strategy sells this year, it probably won’t be because they suddenly turned bearish on Bitcoin. It would be because financing, liquidity, or balance-sheet pressure forced their hand.

      That’s an important difference.

    11. Popular_District9072 on

      we are yet to see a black swan this cycle, so anything is plausible

    12. TotalRepost on

      Does the 12% include the chance that they sell to harvest tax losses? They have done that before

    13. partymsl on

      So 12% chance, Saylor becomes irrelevant forever?

      He ain’t doing that lol

    16. Trueslyforaniceguy on

      lol, that’s so completely wrong it’s absurd.

      Maybe 12% chance in the next 10 years..

    18. TheGreatCryptopo on

      People read stuff like this get spooked, or hyped, and thats where the 12% comes from. This from a buttcoiner –

      Say for example you own $1m of bitcoin, and you have $20k of expenses.

      If the bitcoin price goes up 2%, you now have $1,020,000 of bitcoin.

      He will then take a new loan out against this new $20k „asset“ that he owns, and use that to pay his expenses.

      He could also sell $20k of the bitcoin to pay the expenses, but, he wants to avoid that, because by selling bitcoin he will put downwards pressure on the price (as he will be selling so much of it, it’s in the hundreds of millions a year expenses), and then he’s in BIG trouble if he falls into that cycle.

      The 2% is an old figure… he’s done a huge round of funding recently on his expensive preference shares (because he can’t issue normal stock as much more without ruining his whole „bitcoin yield“ that he basis his whole argument on). The new figure is going to be something like 4%.

      If he continues to raise more money through his preference shares (which is pretty much his only option atm), that % will keep increasing.

      And of course, the more loans he takes out to pay his expenses, the more his expenses grow, and eventually will hit a point no bank will want to loan him any more money as his asset cover isn’t high enough for his costs (refinance where Michael) and the only option left is to sell bitcoin, and then kaboom.

      TLDR He’s building a giant house of cards, and eventually it will fall down, the longer it lasts, the bigger the mess it will make when it does.

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