China und Iran können eine Blockade abwarten
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-cease-fire-talks-stalled-2026/card/china-and-iran-can-wait-out-a-blockade-CkgynAUc99nauwzYw5z5
China und Iran können eine Blockade abwarten
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-cease-fire-talks-stalled-2026/card/china-and-iran-can-wait-out-a-blockade-CkgynAUc99nauwzYw5z5
7 Kommentare
You know who can’t wait out a blockade?
The US. Lmao
Article is paywalled. I would believe the thesis that China can wait it out due to massive oil stockpiles, I’m not confident Iran can given that it’s their primary revenue source to continue paying the IRGC.
Iran just posted +180% inflation – do you really think they can wait much longer?
With respect to China the argument in the article makes sense: China has massive strategic petroleum reserves, Russia, a major oil producer, is its neighbor, and China has the cash to outbid competing countries for energy shipments.
With respect to Iran, not so much. Only the oil at sea Iran has not yet been paid for matters in terms of Iran’s oil revenues, and that is far more limited than the total amount of Iranian oil at sea. Furthermore, Iran is even more highly dependent on oil revenues than usual thanks to its collapsing economy, and there is no guarantee it will be able to continue selling its oil at the current rate or price in the near future given the threat of US sanctions against countries that buy it.
Iran may well be able to wait this out in the very short term, but there’s no way it can hold out even close to as long as China can. Eventually the revenue declines will take effect, Iran’s already decimated economy will lose its main remaining lifeline, and the IRGC will face increasing difficulties keeping its troops paid and Iranian citizens content and pacified.
The whole thing falls apart when you realise that thanks to sanctions 90% of Iranian oil goes to china.
If china can do without Iranian oil but with accelerated Russian oil who may prioritise china over others then china can probably with their strategic reserve sustain for maybe 6 months but the world economy including US might collapse much before that.
Again thanks to sanctions Iran is highly deleveraged from western economies and use petroyuan and Chinese payment gateway to conduct trade. They can buy everything they need including military parts on credit with the Chinese like a barter trade. Take whatever needed pay by oil for rest of next 2 years or credit in petroyuan. Same credit lines extended to Russia who wins 2 fold first by higher prices and higher volumes and secondly easing of Ukrainian front.
The delivery of physical goods can be overland thru turkmenistan and tajikistan for china and Caspian Sea for Russia both outside the blockade as well as beyond interdiction by the US.
Iran really cannot „wait out“ a blockade.
After 13 days, they essentially run out of domestic oil storage capacity.
At that point, they have to conduct forced shut-ins of their mature oil wells. Forced shut-ins for their wells can permanently destroy between 300k-500k bbl/day of production capacity, which is equivalent to 9-15 billion dollars a year of permanently lost oil revenue, even if they start producing from those wells again.
They *really* don’t want to do that. The blockade can last, at most, a week, before they have to *really* start negotiating for relief of some kind, or everyone currently in control of the country is basically going to die.
how can you blockade someone when last routes exist? Iran can simply move is stuff over land through bri corridor?
its just that it will be a bit costlier but that’s the cost of war.
i don’t think usa thought this through.