Israel unterstützt Trumps zweiwöchige Pause bei Angriffen auf den Iran, sagt der Libanon ausgeschlossen

Bibi really wishes he could keep bombing Iran

The one who began the war won’t be the one who finishes it.

Neither Iran nor Hezbollah seems willing to renounce their ambition of destroying Israel. There’s no reason for Israel to stop the war against Hezbollah.

How is there anything left in Lebanon to bomb?

If this is the framework for peace (which is a big if of course), the US and Israel will have failed to achieve their war goals:

* Regime change (failed, the regime still rules)
* Stopping the nuclear programme (partial success, Iran still has its enriched uranium stockpiles to develop a bomb with but obviously they have been set back)
* Stopping the ballistic missile programme (failed, if anything Iran has shown its ballistic missiles to be plentiful and effective)
* Stopping Iran threatening regional allies (failed, if anything the US has shown how outdated some of its air defence systems are, particularly in terms of defence economics)
* Reopening the Strait of Hormuz (failed, IT WAS OPEN BEFORE THE WAR and also Iran still has it in a chokehold)

Meanwhile Iran seems to have accomplished many of its war goals:

* The survival of the regime (success, the regime still rules)
* Deterring attack by hurting the economy (success, they have the world economy by the neck and it has America backing down)
* Assert control over the Strait of Hormuz (massive success, they might even get to charge a hefty toll now)

There is no possible universe where this ending is acceptable to the current Israeli government. In terms of their own goals, this is possibly the worst case scenario. It is a strategic defeat for Israel; one where the Iranian regime is not just extant but more confident in their ability to choke the global economy as deterrence to future attack than they were before the war. They can and will try to undermine it.

I’m sure a lot of MAGA types will see this as a stunning victory the likes of which have not been seen since Caesar, but I can’t help but see this as America’s Suez. That America does not have the military means/will to open the Strait of Hormuz and could not defend its regional allies from lasting and serious economic harm when it used to be able to do these things will have consequences, not to mention the constant insulting of allies from America.

It’s plain and clear that Netanyahu is calling all the shots in this war and he can do it because he has Trump blackmailed.