Wird der Iran-Krieg ein nukleares Wettrüsten im Nahen Osten auslösen?
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nuclear-weapons-race-saudi-arabia-turkey-united-arab-emirates-egypt/a-76613406
Wird der Iran-Krieg ein nukleares Wettrüsten im Nahen Osten auslösen?
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nuclear-weapons-race-saudi-arabia-turkey-united-arab-emirates-egypt/a-76613406
8 Kommentare
No, unless it ends with Iran going nuclear. Iran getting nuclear weapons will start a nuclear arms race. The proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East would make nuclear war exponentially more likely than it is now due to domestic instabilities, conflict, and extremist theocratic governments.
There are a ton of very fair criticisms to be made about the decision to wage war on Iran – but I think people vastly underestimate the potential consequences of inaction here. (Partly because a lot of people have been mislead about Iran’s “compliance” with the JCPOA, and the prospects of deterring Iran’s nuclear ambitions through diplomacy alone).
Submission Statement:
With the Iran war entering its second month, this article examines the question: Will the war start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East?
Since the start of the war, nuclear-related sites in both Iran and Israel have been attacked. Trump says the war was launched to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Iranian politicians have floated the idea of withdrawing from the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty — Israel has never officially declared a nuclear arsenal, but is generally known as a nuclear power. Israel is not a NPT signatory.
Furthermore, the article lays out the regional nuclear backdrop, with Saudi Arabia reprovingly moving towards a cooperation arrangement
with the U.S. concerning uranium enrichment. The UAE already has the Barakah nuclear plant.
The Article does not claim a sprint is happening now, but it covers the incentives of a country to possess nuclear weapons as deterrence, using North Korea as an example. Given the failure of Iran’s „nuclear latency“ posture triggering strikes, and unable to deter them, the incentives towards greater nuclear proliferation in the region appear to be growing in strength.
Clarification Edit:
If nuclear latency did not protect Iran from major strikes, other states may infer that only actual nuclear weapons create reliable deterrence.
Does Iran still need nukes when it has demonstrated escalation dominance in the current conflict and a resolve for mutually assured destruction of ME energy and water infrastructure. MAD has an uniquely low bar in ME given the fragility of human habitation in the harsh environment. Why bother building a nuke when a 10 million dollar missile can take out drinking water of an entire country. It’s a lesson for all, there are bound to be much recalculation when the dust settles.
Only Middle East? Trump has threatened to invade NATO countries, just shows you how unstable the world is. Germany, Poland, Japan, Taiwan and so on would probably love to develop nuke now.
Years ago, Ahmadinejad recounted how the Americans told him the biggest risk in Iran’s nuclear program wasn’t Iran possessing nuclear weapons, but rather starting a nuclear arms race. Yes, Saudi Arabia will do it, Jordan and Egypt will do it. The UAE and Qatar will try to acquire them. Then countries like Ethiopia, Libya, Algeria, and Morocco will consider it. Turkey, feeling unsafe under NATO’s security umbrella, will do it. Then Greece will either deploy French nuclear weapons in its country or consider it. Armenia and Azerbaijan will try to reach agreements with Russia or third countries and deploy them in their countries. It’s a complete domino effect. I think only Afghanistan under Taliban rule will come close to 0% considering and doing it.
Iran will deploy nukes whenever they decide to. The Gulf states will respond not by building them but buying them — they have more money than God. Pakistan or North Korea will find a use for the big bucks.
Given its deterrent effect, I am baffled at why anyone wouldnt.
It’s not Iran triggering a nuclear arms race, it’s Russia, Israel, and the USA.
The sad lesson of these last few years is that if you don’t have nukes, the big powers can decide to call you „a bad guy“, invade you, and steal your land and resources without consequences.