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    1. Pretend-Prune6285 on

      SS: If Iran puts up a toll booth collecting 2% of total oil exiting gulf. Not including gas, lng, refined products, aluminum, fertilizer, container ships.

      20 M bpd. 70$ a barrel

      20*70 =1,400 million $ a day= 1.4B a day

      2% is 28M a day

      365 * 28 =10,220 M = 10B $ a year

      Iran current defense budget ~ 10B a year

      So the whole project of blowing up drone/missile factories will be moot.

      Just from oil toll Iran can make as much money as its defense budget.

      Finally how will any US navy ship enter Gulf again?

    2. Magicalsandwichpress on

      >The Trump administration had planned for the possibility of Iran closing the strait after the first bombs dropped.

      If the plan was a napkin with a stick figure holding up a sign that reads „Winning“

    3. kindagoodatthis on

      There just isnt a real way to open up the strait that isnt going to be a multi year long campaign that will likely include a draft. As long as the Iranian military is functioning at a minimal level, they can toss drones through the strait for the next hundred years. And as long as the strait remains under their control, any damage you have inflicted on them/will inflict is borderline irrelevant.

      Maybe Trump and the WH finally see reason and are going to wind this down. But it’s also very possible its just a bluff and we see some kind of invasion this long weekend.

    4. Reddit is funny sometime. On one hand they said Trump’s words can’t be trust, but they treat everything he said as gospels. LOL

    5. ConsciousScar7821 on

      I don’t really get how being able to launch cheap drones at ships means you control a waterway. By that logic, couldn’t any of the Gulf states claim the same by just launching drones at ships themselves?

    6. WhatAreYouSaying05 on

      Trump can’t back down on this. Our allies all over the world will lose confidence in America, and he will look incredibly weak, which is something he can’t tolerate. There’s a bunch of troops being moved to the region, thousands of them. He isn’t going to leave. He’s going to put boots on the ground, and that’ll be the end of his career

    7. vovap_vovap on

      Well, that will met a small problem of oil pries that would not go down. Actually will go up. And worsening economy is not something possible to cell to American public.

    8. endlessedlne on

      They’ve already hinted at this. Trump has blabbed previously about the straight being the responsibility of the nations that use it. At the G7 summit Rubio mentioned something about the nations of the world having to kick in.

      I don’t think it’s a bluff. I think that Trump & Co. are fully aware that opening the straight is beyond the capabilities of the US’s assets currently in theatre, and that surging the amount of forces needed to do the job would be political suicide. So they’re sowing the seeds & looking for off ramps.

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