Gegenseitig gesicherte Energievernichtung

Graeme Wood: “The vow to annihilate energy infrastructure is one of two threats—American and Iranian—that remain, as of this writing, unfulfilled … 

“Trump’s targeting of power plants would be a remarkable and possibly illegal step, if those plants are civilian, and it is difficult to imagine any other president openly threatening their obliteration. Iran’s targeting of oil-and-gas infrastructure, however, is predictable, and is one of the reasons every president before Trump declined to attack Iran at all. It is by far the most painful action Iran could take against the United States and its allies. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar all pay their bills through oil and gas, and if these stop flowing, they will rapidly turn from petrocrats to paupers.

“Wrecking oil infrastructure is easy. It has no legs; it cannot run away or be hidden underground until danger passes. It is filled with materials at high temperatures and pressures, and some of them can be set on fire. In a 2019 attack that presaged the current war, a fleet of drones and a barrage of cruise missiles hit Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields. Abqaiq is the world’s most important oil field. Direct strikes on crude-stabilization columns and gas-oil-separation tanks reduced Saudi oil output by half. Saudi Arabia accused Iran of launching the attacks, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told me in 2022 that the U.S. was ready to punish Iran for the attack, but had held back to avoid ‘escalation.’

“Rebuilding that same infrastructure is hard. A single well-aimed strike can set back a whole operation for a very long time. On March 18, Iran attacked Ras Laffan, Qatar’s main site for liquefied-natural-gas production, and Qatar estimated that repairs would take three to five years … 

“But there is also a strategic consideration that might keep Iran from using maximum force. The logic of a devastating attack on oil-and-gas infrastructure is uncomfortably similar to mutually assured destruction: If Iran wipes out Saudi oil production, the immediate annihilation of its own infrastructure is nearly certain. The two countries rely about equally on oil and gas as shares of their exports, so such an attack by Iran would be tantamount to economic murder-suicide. It would also end all polite remonstrance from Iran’s neighbors, who have suggested that Iran’s regime might survive the war, if it forswears attacks, blockades, and terrorism. A direct attack on the oil fields would force the conclusion that the regime must fall. Destroying energy production in the Persian Gulf would also deal a grievous blow to Iran’s ally China, which devours both Arab and Iranian oil and would be left energy-hungry for years.””

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