Amerikas neue Art des Wirtschaftskrieges: Die Gefahren einer Strategie ohne Doktrin

[Excerpt from essay by Peter E. Harrell, Visiting Scholar at Georgetown’s Institute of International Economic Law.]

In December, Trump declared a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned tankers carrying oil from Venezuela, and in the months since he has rapidly expanded his use of the U.S. Navy to enforce sanctions. The navy has now seized or detained at least ten tankers with ties to Venezuela. Trump also threatened tariffs on countries that ship oil to Cuba—and he appears to be quietly backstopping the threat with the Coast Guard, which has already intercepted at least one vessel bound for the island. U.S. allies and partners are following suit: in February, India seized several U.S.-sanctioned Iranian tankers, and France detained a sanctioned Russian ship in January and another earlier this month.

As statecraft, this has the potential to restore the potency of U.S. and allied sanctions, which have lost their bite in recent years. But the shift is also dangerous, inviting other countries to retaliate in kind. If Washington intends to launch a new age of hybrid economic warfare, it should develop a doctrine for when and how it uses sanctions, when it will use force to back them up, and clarity on the legal basis for its actions. Otherwise, Washington risks inviting economic, cyber, and even military retaliation by other governments and setting a dangerous precedent that adversaries could use to seize U.S. and allied property, even outside of armed conflict.

Yawn, another thinly veiled anti-American thread for those who chose purposeful ignorance.