Die USA könnten diese drei iranischen Inseln erobern, sagen Experten

Can anyone explain how putting troops on the ground of any of these islands isn’t putting them in a kill zone for Iranian drones and missiles?

No reasonable person is denying that the military can seize any bit of coastal land the United States wants. This is quite literally what the Marines are there for. Tiny islands in the Persian Gulf will pose more of a logistical challenge than a conventional military challenge as far as that initial seizure is concerned.

The problem is holding it. In some cases, that means „hold against enemy counterattack,“ as in some insane attack on Bandar or something. In the case of these islands, it means „holding it despite constant harassing strikes.“ There needs to be a better plan than „fling PAC-3s at everything that shows up on the radar“ and, right now, that looks to be the gist of any defensive plan.

Most islands are, by their nature as islands, relatively flat expanses of land with limited geographic cover. That means observation and targeting of things on the island is easier. That increases the likelihood that Iran can successfully target occupying forces on any given island. And while Iranian strikes currently have a low success rate, that rate isn’t 0% and the American people will likely be a lot less indifferent to sustained casualties from drones and missiles than they are to the loss of a radar (even an expensive one). The public is generally willing to write off small numbers of fatalities but is much less likely to ignore that when losses cross the triple digit threshold, especially for a war as unpopular as this one is.

Abu Musa is probably the least likely to result in this sort of scenario. It’s roughly equidistant between the two mainlands and, while in range, isn’t as easy a target as the other two. The caveat here is that Abu Musa doesn’t really change the dynamic in the Strait that much. If you want to do that, you have to look at something like Greater and Lesser Tunb, as the article suggests. The two Tunbs are *much* more problematic than Abu Musa due to their proximity to the Iranian coast and relatively flat terrain.

They’re wrong. The US seizing any one of those islands is suicide. Also, what’s it accomplish? Serious question. Say they take the islands. Then what?

Gallipoli 2, this time it’s the Yanks

Nobody contests that this is true. The U.S. military could ’seize‘ Tehran if they wanted to; the more important strategic issues stem from what follows the seizure of Kharg island, for example. The Iranians would assuredly cut oil flows immediately, and any assets in place for that seizure would be in a dangerous and logistically unsustainable position.

More important would be the regional downstream effects: U.S. allies in the region would be forced to either directly support the U.S., abandoning their current sideline positions, or to openly reject American calls to arms. Given the current administration’s temperament, refusal would almost certainly lead to a withdrawal of U.S. support; joining in would almost certainly lead to Iranian targeting of thus-far untargeted sites like Ras al-Khair and Jubail.

Were the Iranians successful in attacking key infrastructure assets like these, the ensuing humanitarian crisis would make 2006-2007 Iraq and the 2011 Syrian refugee exodus look like a walk in the park. This is why the ‚Trump Doctrine‘ of pure escalation is so dangerous here, particularly given the fragmented operational command of Iranian forces. The potential for this to spiral should be incredibly alarming to all in the American government, who appear to be in a diplomatic fugue state.

Will almost certainly result in mass casualties on the american side and that might be used to justify a major ground invasion into Iranian mainland later on to the american public.

Ya that would be a meat grinder. Those islands are easily within reach of all Iranian munitions. Mines, traps will be set. Not to mention hormuz is still closed so how will they arrive on those islands?

Poor Iran, it supports Russia in its war of territorial expansion against Ukraine and now its own territory is about to be taken. If authoritarian states aren’t safe from being on the receiving end of what they support, what kind of rules based order do we have?