27 Tage des Iran-Israel-Krieges kartiert – was uns das Angriffsmuster tatsächlich darüber verrät, wohin die Reise führt

I’ve been tracking every verified kinetic event since Day 1 of Operation Epic Fury. After 27 days and 200+ logged events across the theater, the data suggests a few things that aren’t getting enough attention in the general coverage.

**The campaign has moved through three distinct phases**

Days 1-7 were the air superiority phase. Strike density was at its highest — roughly 80 events in that window. The targeting pattern was clearly focused on Iranian air defense suppression and the nuclear program. The pace was unsustainable by design – designed to create a window, not maintain it.

Days 8-18 shifted to degradation of missile production infrastructure. The geographic spread of strikes moved away from Tehran-centric targeting into western provinces. This is where the campaign’s ambitions became clearer – this wasn’t just about the nuclear file, it was about dismantling the industrial base behind the ballistic missile program entirely.

Days 19-27 is where the picture gets complicated. Iranian retaliation capability proved more resilient than the opening phase suggested. The March 22 strikes reached within 8km of Dimona – that’s the single most significant data point in the entire dataset. Whatever the targeting intent was, Iranian forces demonstrated they could still reach strategic Israeli infrastructure after 3 weeks of sustained degradation operations.

**What the pattern suggests going forward**

Strike frequency is declining on both sides – but that’s not the same as Iranian capability being neutralised. The data points to an attrition phase rather than a decisive conclusion. The question isn’t whether Iran can launch — it clearly still can – it’s whether the rate of degradation outpaces the rate of reconstitution.

Airspace across the region tells its own story. At peak we logged 11 simultaneous country-level closures. That number has come down but hasn’t returned to baseline — which tracks with the operational tempo reduction but not resolution.

I’ve been maintaining a live tracker with all of this data since Day 1 if anyone wants to look at the raw event log

or the daily recaps: [iranwarlive.com](http://iranwarlive.com/)

Also running automated alerts on Telegram for anyone following closely.

Happy to dig into any specific phase or event if useful.

How representative do you think the captured kinetic events you’re working from are of everything going on? (Like 200 out of an estimated?)  I’m asking this as a biologist used to representative statistics of varying quality. Don’t read that question antagonistically at all, the answer may well be 100% for all I know, I just thought I would ask so I knew as an outsider how to interpret your findings more fully 👍🏻