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3 Kommentare
The IRGC is charging $2 million per vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz. War-risk insurance premiums for the same voyage run $1.8-3.6 million per VLCC (S&P Global Platts; Kennedys Law). 116 commodity vessels have crossed in 19 days (Kpler/AFP). The CENTCOM safe corridor has zero commercial uptake through Day 22. The DFC reinsurance facility has zero enrolees. This piece examines why the market is choosing the IRGC corridor over Western alternatives — and finds the answer is price, not politics. Sources cited include Lloyd’s Market Association, S&P Global Platts, Kennedys Law, Lloyd’s List, Kpler, AP, Windward AI, and CENTCOM.
**Edited for stale data**
If Trump „winds down“, this will become the status quo + end of petrodollar + Iran will develop a nuke.
If he escalates, Iran can:
1 – Take out the entire Gulf energy infrastructure
2 – Take out the water desalinization plants.
3 – Cut off the [undersea cables](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HD-VbIgXsAAjAgz?format=jpg&name=large).
5 – Block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
This war was a really bad call.
I’ve gotta give Iran credit. It takes balls to tell the rest of the world that the days of free passage are over. If the U.S. backs down or fails, Iran can continue with this for a long time.