Die Schließung der Straße von Hormus sei „die größte Bedrohung für die globale Energiesicherheit in der Geschichte“, warnt IEA-Chef

And there are some Europeans and Americans (MAGA) in denial, thinking this will be „at worst“ a 2022 level energy crisis, and a brief one at that.

Instead, we are looking at a repeat at 1973 as a best case scenario.

[Brazil, which has some of the largest oil reserves in the world and is one of the largest food exporters in the world is facing a nationwide trucking crisis due to diesel prices](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/brazilian-truckers-weigh-strike-diesel-prices-jump-amid-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-17/).

The 1973 oil embargo lasted only 6 months but it created a decade of recession and inflation in its wake. Developing countries were hit particularly hard back then and several faced regime collapse-coups (Ethiopia, Greece, Thailand, Argentina, etc…).

In the 1973 crisis, the Gulf presented about 7-9% of global oil supply, today it is roughly 15%, so almost twice as much. The tourism industry was much smaller in 1973 than it is today. Air travel grew 10 fold since 1973. We are way more dependent on international trade and international shipping than we were in 1973. And there a more industrial uses for oil/gas byproducts like helium and Sulphur e.g. chip making uses helium. Never mind the fact that 30% of the world’s fertilizers come from the Gulf.

„Energy autonomous countries“ are not shielded from this either and they will face higher prices just like everyone else, as oil and gas are fungible global commodities.  In the case of the US, for example, if oil is priced at $150 a barrel in Asia, the US producer will be incentivized to sell it there unless the US market is willing to pay the same. So in the end, US consumers will have to pay the same as anyone else for oil. Brazil is an example of an „Energy autonomous country“ and they are having social issues due to high diesel prices exactly for the reasons I explained.

Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts the supply of 30% of the world’s fertilizers. So food prices are skyrocketing everywhere, including in „energy autonomous countries“. Finally the entire global supply chain is dependent on the oil that comes from the Gulf. The US will be hit with higher semiconductors, plastics, chemicals, medicine and other components just like everyone else.

We could be facing a pivotal moment in global history.

This is pretty much the reason why the Iran conflict was bound to happen. Yes, Trump was incredibly terrible in his pitch for this conflict and continues to use superlative language in an effort to calm the markets, however Iran having this much power over a critical throughfare for international transit is unsustainable. Their government (whatevers left) is not a rational actor and has repeatidly mislead and harmed the region. This includes being the largest funder of terrorism on the planet as well as its deep humanitarian issues. Its clear that regardless of who started the war, Iran is hell bent on destroying anybody that has US ties in the middle east. This is supported by their attack on Qatari oil fields and Saudi Arabia. Trump with his moronic rhetoric and foot in mouth diplomacy sped up the timeline for this clash with Iran and failed to secure or at least convince his NATO cohorts about it. Now NATO has to make a choice, secure the strait and effectively doom the current Iranian regime or risk a global energy disaster. NATO has the best opportunity, in its existence, to exert military power on a critical global asset.