Brasilianische Lkw-Fahrer erwägen Streik, da die Dieselpreise im Nahostkonflikt steigen

The 1973 oil embargo lasted only 6 months but it created a decade of recession and inflation in its wake. Developing countries were hit particularly hard back then and several faced regime collapse-coups (Ethiopia, Greece, Thailand, Argentina, etc…). Brazil at that time, under military rule, saw its economy transition from massive growth to a decade long stagnation that eventually brought down the regime.

In the 1973 crisis, the Gulf presented about 7-9% of global oil supply, today it is roughly 15%, so almost twice as much. The tourism industry was much smaller in 1973 than it is today. Air travel grew 10 fold since 1973. We are way more dependent on international trade and international shipping than we were in 1973. And there a more industrial uses for oil/gas byproducts like helium and Sulphur e.g. chip making uses helium. Never mind the fact that 30% of the world’s fertilizers come from the Gulf.

So for the duration that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and even months after it is re-opened, everything that is harvested, manufactured, built, heated, cooled and shipped will become more expensive. High prices will also affect tourism, entertainment, sports and virtually any type of economic activity one can think of. Higher prices, fewer jobs, lower wages and the massive levels of debt being carried by individuals, companies and nation states is a recipe for disaster.

[India is already facing a severe cooking gas crisis.](https://indianexpress.com/article/india/lpg-gas-shortage-petrol-diesel-price-crude-oil-live-updates-india-10577558/)

The Philippines is 96% dependent on hydrocarbons from the Gulf. Vietnam is 87% dependent and Thailand is 73% dependent.

If developing countries default on their dollar denominated debts, the entire European banking system could be at risk, as they are super exposed.

I particularly worry about Pakistan, a nuclear armed country that is always on the brink of becoming a nuke armed failed state where the religious radicals run wild.

„Energy autonomous countries“ are not shielded from this either and they will face higher prices just like everyone else, as oil and gas are fungible global commodities.  In the case of the US, for example, if oil is priced at $150 a barrel in Asia, the US producer will be incentivized to sell it there unless the US market is willing to pay the same. So in the end, US consumers will have to pay the same as anyone else for oil. Brazil is an example of an „Energy autonomous country“ and they are having social issues due to high diesel prices exactly for the reasons I explained.

Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts the supply of 30% of the world’s fertilizers. So food prices are skyrocketing everywhere, including in „energy autonomous countries“. Finally the entire global supply chain is dependent on the oil that comes from the Gulf. The US will be hit with higher semiconductors, plastics, chemicals, medicine and other components just like everyone else.

We could be facing a pivotal moment in global history.