Die verschwindende Ausfahrt im Iran
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
Die verschwindende Ausfahrt im Iran
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
5 Kommentare
Thomas Wright: “The window for Donald Trump to end the Iran war by simply declaring victory and walking away is rapidly closing. Soon he will face a stark choice: He can take greater risks in pursuit of a decisive tactical success, prepare the country for a prolonged conflict that could last for many months, or seek a negotiated settlement that involves a real compromise with Tehran.
“Initially, Trump saw his Venezuela operation as the template for Iran. He imagined that he would make a deal with someone inside the regime who would work pragmatically with him and maybe cut the United States in on the oil. But the Islamic Republic proved more aggressive and more resilient than he had anticipated. By his own admission, no one in his administration had expected Iran to strike out against American allies in the region—’they weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East’—although it had repeatedly threatened to do exactly that. As the war grew more difficult, declaring victory anyway and unilaterally ending it without a deal became his most obvious off-ramp.
“Trump has set the stage for this outcome. He has repeatedly insisted that the war is ‘already won’ and ‘very complete.’ He told Fox News that he would choose to end the conflict when ‘I feel it in my bones.’ Senator Josh Hawley urged him to declare victory immediately and end the war. But the longer the war continues, the harder sustaining the claim that the United States is winning will become.
“Trump can point to some military successes. The United States and Israel have destroyed much of Iran’s navy and air force, as well as many of its missile systems. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed. Yet the costs of the conflict are mounting. Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz and is denying access to allied tankers. The price of oil has jumped to nearly $100 a barrel. Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei is now the supreme leader. And Iran continues to strike targets across the Gulf …
“The enemy, of course, also gets a vote. Some analysts argue that Iran will continue to fight until the United States and Israel agree to a negotiated settlement ensuring that they will not restart the war in the future. In other words, Iran wants to restore deterrence. In this scenario, it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and attack U.S. targets even if Trump announces a unilateral end to the war.”
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/KlDpSvy1](https://theatln.tc/KlDpSvy1)
Im quite skeptical as to how this plays out, but as far as I can tell the people pushing the narrative that the off-ramp is closing are (largely) the same people who have been claiming Khamenei is still alive, Iran is winning militarily, Tel Aviv is in ashes, Iran has a stockpile of super secret advanced missiles it just hasn’t used yet, and now Netanyahu is actually dead and all the videos of him are AI.
Okay, let’s entertain for a second he declares victory and walks away.
Why would Iran believe that America won’t be back in a year to mow the lawn and do it all again?
How is Israel going to react if he suddenly stopped today? Israel is all in on this and will they let America walk away from this and leave them holding the bag as they move in on Lebanon.
There is an off ramp, concessions to the regime. That’s politically untenable and unacceptable for many and won’t happen either.
The only outcome I see is a gradual sort of return to normal, all sides exhausted, best outcome is it doesn’t escalate any further.
Weird things happen when there is an assymmetry between offensive capabilities and defensive capabilities. The endless horrors of the first World War were (partially, ofcourse there are 20 million other factors) caused by defense being so much stronger than offense. It made it impossible to gain an inch.
Atomic weapons have created such a massive gap that nobody causes a war between nuclear powers to happen, even though we’ve come close too often.
What we’re seeing right now is very interesting though. In Ukraine, there has been a stalemate for years, in some ways remeniscent of WWI, which would suggest defense is critical again.
This war in Iran, however, displays the opposite. US and Israel can send whole boatloads of rockets and demolish cities to rubble. However, that will never be enough to actually subjugate Iran. With extremely cheap and outdated weapons they can still inflict massive damage to the entire world economy. The only defensive option available is using massively expensive rockets to shoot them down, which is completely unviable in the long run.
Offense has become so strong that you simply have no way of defending yourself realistically, against a decent opponent (not even talking about _equal_ opponents). Israel probably has been telling themselves their genocide in Gaza was a war, but they’re truly finding out what war is now, and will find out a lot more when their Iron Dome starts to rust.
I am scared for what happens if this conflict escalates, with offensive weaponry being invulnerable worldwide.
The enemy gets a vote, you literally cannot just walk away from a war the other side wants to keep fighting. Iran can keep launching missiles and drones at US bases and assets for the foreseeable future which will then require a response. Iran can also keep
The straight of Hormuz effectively closed as well.