Warum Russland zusieht, wie der Iran brennt: Der Kreml hat es nicht eilig, seinen engsten Partner im Nahen Osten zu retten

[Excerpt from essay by Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin; Nicole Grajewski, Assistant Professor at Sciences Po and Nonresident Scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Sergey Vakulenko, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.]

The Kremlin’s impotence in Iran is in keeping with a familiar pattern: when Russia’s friends are in need, Moscow issues strongly worded statements and does little else. In late 2023, Russia failed to intervene in a brief war between its treaty ally, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, allowing Baku to reclaim control over its province of Nagorno-Karabakh. A year later, Moscow let rebel forces topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Within the past year, the United States (along with Israel) bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, and missile factories; killed high-ranking Iranian officials, military commanders, and nuclear scientists; and abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Moscow’s key partner in Latin America, with virtually no Russian interference. All these cases lay bare the limitations of Russia’s power to shape outcomes around the world.

And yet the current war in Iran has unintended consequences that benefit Russia. As the war drags on, the price of energy will likely continue to rise, which will help Moscow earn additional revenue and address a ballooning budget deficit resulting from its war in Ukraine.

If Russia couldn’t meaningfully defend Armenia against Azerbaijan a formal partner in its own sphere, it’s hard to imagine it stepping in decisively for anyone else right now. Whatever be the positives or negatives.

Well, after the decapitation, how could Russian help them? After that it was clear, that Iran can’t resist against the combined air power of the US and Israel, so they played the only way, they could hurt the US: an asymmetrical war against the world economy and the US allies in the gulf. And for this strategy they only need drones, missles and Intel. Russia delivers at least two of them.

In short term this war is pretty good for Russia. Oil praises up, sanctions down, Ukraine getting less weapons and attention. Why intervene?