Das iranische Regime verdoppelt sich

Karim Sadjadpour: “Less than two weeks into the American and Israeli bombardment of Iran, the war is both a success and a failure. Militarily, the campaign has effectively degraded the Islamic Republic’s warmaking capacities. But politically, thus far, it has only strengthened the regime’s cohesion.

“President Trump may have hoped the elimination of the Islamic Republic’s longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would produce an Iranian Delcy Rodríguez—a pragmatic insider who would capitulate to American pressure—but it has instead spawned a budding Iranian Kim Jong Un. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, will succeed his father, making the Islamic Republic a hereditary dictatorship poised to double down on ideology and repression.

“Mojtaba inherits one of the most difficult jobs in the world. Reportedly injured and in hiding, he will lead a government that is simultaneously fighting full-blown wars against the United States and Israel and against much of its own population. He survived the missile strike that killed his father, wife, and mother only because he was in an adjacent room. The attack that nearly killed him catapulted him to power, as the Islamic Republic, fighting for its own survival, closed ranks around a son committed to his father’s revolutionary principles—choosing continuity over competence and familiarity over sudden change …

Trump “wants a deal and an exit. But can he afford to end a costly and chaotic war by leaving Iran in the hands of a Khamenei who is just as radical, and 30 years younger, than the man he killed?

“In Tehran, the only men who currently have the legitimacy to end the war are now doubly committed to the character of the Islamic Republic. Foremost among them is the new supreme leader, who in the best of times possessed neither the worldview nor the temperament to meet Trump’s public demand for unconditional surrender.”

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