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    Wann stürzen Autokraten durch Massenproteste?

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    1. carnegieendowment on

      *[Excerpt from Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier’s piece in Carnegie’s Emissary]*

      The statements from President Donald Trump’s administration about its objectives in Iran have varied widely since it first launched military strikes against the country on February 28. But within this changing story, the hope of regime change is clearly on the table. In his initial recorded video statement announcing the intervention, Trump called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow the government once the United States finished its military action. He reiterated the point a day later when he told the Iranian public to seize the moment to take back their country.

    3. area51cannonfooder on

      When the people with guns side with the crowds instead of shooting the protesters

    4. Gajanvihari on

      The thing is there were a dozen Gen Z protests that rocked their respective nations last year, like Madagaacar or Indonesia or Tanzania. Political, Economic and Social stress is taking its toll on nations. Are articles honest about possible change?

      Its obvious the world does not care about protesters, not a peep from 2k killed in Tanzania. Feb 21 there was an other violent suppression of protesters in Iran. This weeks flood of articles seem to prefer the IRGC rule to siding with Trump.

      You may not like the conditions or timing, but do people really not support a regime change?

    5. googologies on

      When a critical mass of subordinates defect. This is highly unlikely if the regime came to power through a war (after 1945), or if the state relies heavily on fossil fuels for its revenue.

    6. Jpahoda on

      1) they need to interrupt business, cause serious inconvenience. Protests of convenience during the weekends are ethical masturbation.

      2) they need to provoke the threat of violence and then turn than against the autocrats. The autocrats don’t yield to public opinion, but to threat of violence.

    8. Crazycook99 on

      When the people realize peaceful protests won’t accomplish anything, when it comes to autocrats

    9. AnatolianBear on

      Protesting for more rights or better economy is not the same thing as siding with the army who bomb your cities.

      One simple question people need to ask themselves:

      If there was a tyrannical government in the U.S, would you side with the Chinese or Russians while they bomb your cities, kill innocent countrymen of yours, occupy and exploit your lands?

    10. LunLocra on

      My bitter answer would be „before 21st century“. Like seriously, check the amount of authoritarian regimes that got replaced by democracy or at least got softer in the 1970-2000 period and then check the 2000-2025 period in this regard. 

      Spoiler: in the former period half of the world got more democratic, in the latter you’ll find like two or three African countries that got better (Tunisia and iirc Liberia and Sierra Leone?) versus half of the world that got worse.

      It’s amazing for me how consistent this terribleness has been for such a long time. You’d think that one damn autocracy of the nearly 40 that exist would collapse over the past 10 years to some mass protests or internal elite dissent or whatever, alas nothing. For some time I have simply come to expect any any mass protests againsts any dictatorship to either not change anything or make things worse, and look how well my pessimism has worked out in case of Iran! 

      Apparently the zeitgeist of the early 21st century does not allow political emancipation and we can’t do shit. 

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