Hunderte globale und regionale Studien zum Anstieg des Meeresspiegels und zu Küstenüberschwemmungen haben den Meeresspiegel möglicherweise um durchschnittlich 20 bis 30 Zentimeter unterschätzt
Hundreds of studies have missed how much the oceans are rising
2 Kommentare
Looks like we’re gonna need a bigger boat.
Link to the article
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1)
Abstract:
The impacts of sea-level rise and other hazards on the coasts of the world are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation[^(1)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1#ref-CR1). Correct integration of both aspects is fundamental for reliable sea-level rise and coastal hazard impact assessments[^(2)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1#ref-CR2)^(,)[^(3)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1#ref-CR3), but is often not carefully considered or properly performed. Here we show that more than 99% of the evaluated impact assessments handled sea-level and land elevation data inadequately, thereby misjudging sea level relative to coastal elevation. Based on our literature evaluation, 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27 m [0.76 m] and 0.24 m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids). Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1 m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific. Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1 m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level. Our results highlight the need for re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments and improvement of research community standards, with possible implications for policymakers, climate finance and coastal adaptation.