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Thirty years ago, atmospheric scientists began to notice a worrisome trend. They knew that turbulence from storms increases in summer, when hotter and more humid air rises to form thunderheads. And they knew that clear-air turbulence increases in winter, when the temperature drops dramatically at the poles but not in the tropics. That temperature difference drives the jet stream, which creates turbulent eddies and wind shear as it rushes through slower bodies of air. But on top of these seasonal swings, there seemed to be an over-all trend as well: the Earth’s atmosphere was getting rougher.

Temperatures had been rising across the globe for nearly a century. Still, scientists were surprised by just how much turbulence seemed to be rising. Today, one atmospheric scientist estimates that if carbon-dioxide emissions continue apace, moderate or greater clear-air turbulence could rise by as much as 170 per cent on flight routes over the North Atlantic by the middle of the century. Other researchers have predicted that turbulence from storms and other sources could also nearly double. Will planes still keep us safe? Read Burkhard Bilger’s full report: [https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/03/09/buckle-up-for-bumpier-skies](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/03/09/buckle-up-for-bumpier-skies)