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    Öl steigt nach US-israelischen Angriffen auf den Iran auf über 82 US-Dollar, was die Aussichten für Russland verbessert


    Öl steigt nach US-israelischen Angriffen auf den Iran auf über 82 US-Dollar, was die Aussichten für Russland verbessert

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/02/oil-jumps-above-82-after-us-israel-strikes-on-iran-boosting-outlook-for-russia-a92087

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    1. oripash on

      There are two forces squeezing Russian energy business, completely orthogonal to each other.

      One is the pre-Iran-war oversupply mode the market was in, where the market was offering such low prices for oil that forced Russia to sell what they can produce at a loss. That one will see an easing of the pressure with Iran unable to supply its share.

      The second force is Ukraine building flamingos, sapsans, sea babies and maguras faster than russia can rebuild pipelines, ports and refineries, to make Russians unable to rock up to an energy deal able to supply product. No supply, no payment. If Ukraine’s strategic bombing campaign continues increasing its scale past a certain point, it stops mattering what oil prices are on the market, Russian oil money starts being limited by their shrinking ability to bring a product to a deal.

      These two forces can squeeze Russia, one of them all the way to a theoretical zero or near zero, almost completely independently of each other.

    2. jugalator on

      Isn’t it a little disingenious to talk of Brent crude prices rather than Ural crude when the topic is Russia?

      https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

      As far as I can tell it’s currently trading at $58/barrel when Russia realistically want somewhere $70-$80 for it to be more sustainable? (and indeed what it traded at during 2024)

      Brent also spiked much more than Urals crude with the ongoing events in the Middle east. It did rise too, but let’s see. Hopefully it won’t climb too quickly and high, and the situation will settle somewhat.

    4. qwerty080 on

      Might go higher as Iran is trashing around and attacking middle eastern countries semirandomly. Recently hit Saudi refinery which might drive prices up although Saudis get ~75% of export revenues from crude oil exports.

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