Der Google Event Risk Radar nutzt Vorhersagemarktdaten, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens von Google-bezogenen Ereignissen darzustellen. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist in der Y-Achse enthalten und die Liquidität (denken Sie an die Stichprobengröße) ist in der X-Achse enthalten. Farben kennzeichnen Gruppen von Ereignissen.
Quelle: Implied-Data.com
Von BadBoyBrando
2 Kommentare
I love how late stage capitalism has become gambling instead of jetpacks.
This is a cool concept. Using liquidity as a proxy for confidence makes the scatter way more meaningful than just plotting raw probabilities.
One thing that might make it even clearer is labeling or visually separating low liquidity outliers. A 60 percent probability with 2k in liquidity feels very different from 60 percent with 200k behind it. Maybe varying point size by liquidity as well as position could reinforce that.
Also curious how often you plan to snapshot this. A small multiples view over time could show which events are actually repricing versus just sitting there with thin volume.