Die Worst-Case-Zukunft für Angestellte

Signs that AI is already disrupting white collar jobs are hard to ignore. College graduates now make up a quarter of the unemployed, a record high. High school graduates are finding work faster than college grads for the first time ever. Major firms like Baker McKenzie, Salesforce, and KPMG are cutting white collar positions while citing AI efficiency gains. The worry is that this isn’t a temporary downturn but the start of permanent job elimination in fields like accounting, law, and engineering.

If that happens, our usual economic fixes won’t work. Normally recessions end when the government cuts taxes, invests in infrastructure, and the Fed lowers rates to encourage hiring. But companies won’t rehire accountants and lawyers if AI already does those jobs. We’d face structural unemployment instead of cyclical downturns. Unemployment benefits max out after six months and don’t support six figure earners. Retraining programs have poor track records. Even universal basic income won’t solve the core problem: most people need meaningful work, not just a check. Without employed white collar workers spending money, the broader economy suffers. Housing prices fall, tax revenue drops, and inequality widens.