Reform ist nicht mehr der Favorit auf den Sieg bei der nächsten Wahl
Von Important_Ruin
Reform ist nicht mehr der Favorit auf den Sieg bei der nächsten Wahl
Von Important_Ruin
35 Kommentare
Reform UK are no longer bookmakers’ favourites to win the most seats at the next UK general election, according to Ladbrokes. The latest odds put Labour Party in front at 13/8, with Reform drifting to 7/4. Conservative Party are at 11/2, followed by the Green Party of England and Wales (8/1), Restore Britain (20/1), and the Liberal Democrats (40/1).
Ladbrokes said it was the first time since May 2025 that Reform had not been favourites. The shift comes amid signs of softening momentum for Reform and growing fragmentation on the right, potentially linked to Rupert Lowe’s new party, Restore Britain, splitting votes. Recent polling also suggests a volatile landscape, with the Greens gaining ground and Labour slipping in vote share.
While betting markets are not forecasts, the movement in odds indicates declining confidence among punters that Reform will win the most seats at the next election.
I wonder if the ex tories joining Reform have damaged their reputation.
The party is populated by Conservative failures of 2010-2024… it’s too fresh in everyones memory.
Revealing a ’shadow cabinet‘ of proven losers and dunces has lengthened their odds. Who’d have thunk it?
I think it’s mostly because they’re fucking terrible at running local councils, they’re a bunch of fascist, racist bigoted frauds and sexual predators but apart from that
To the surprise of no one.
For all his faults, Alastair Campbell was right. The more people treated Farage and Reform like politicians, and the more exposure they got in politics, the sooner they would fail.
Reform’s tenure at local authority level has been nothing short of an abject disaster, they’ve broken the only 2 promises they made, and they’re suffering for it.
Wow would you look at that, turns out polls for a reactionary new party that gains popularity a year into a parliament actually aren’t all that relevant on elections that are several years away.
They’re obviously a force but their potential has been over inflated by certain pollsters, bots on line and the constant media exposure they get. They have a very loyal base but I don’t see that expanding massively and people will act differently if they think there’s a genuine chance of them getting in rather than it being a protest vote.
This has to do with Restore Britain. They are taking some of the Reform votes.
This thread smells of complacency. They can still bounce back and still need to be treated seriously.
Were they ever really? Polls are utterly meaningless this far from an election. It’s basically a referendum on the government rather than a real political choice
I reckon if they dumped Farage (which is what I suspect they’ll put into motion immediately if they do win), they’d have significantly more support than they do now. Probably enough to make the win inevitable.
what’s interesting is the lack of media coverage on this when it was the other way around it was everywhere
Wonder if that Jeremy Clarkson article had an impact here?
Probably because their leader supports the orange clown. They also have plans to bring in a UK version of ICE which is almost universally hated. If you want support, try not being fascist shaped.
Vince Cable put it best when he said „Never underestimate Farrage’s ability to grab defeat from the jaws of victory“.
They never anyone s favourite
They were hipped by the lunatics/billionaires that brought us brexshite
I’ve been saying for months that polls at the moment mean nothing. Start looking in 2028 at the earliest. With Labour’s massive majority there is no way they’re going to have an early GE and in a couple of years time some of the more positive things they are doing will start to break through. Reform’s record in local councils is going to be dire…It’s already falling apart at that level. The bunch of Tories that are joining are making them look Tories 2.0 and Lowe’s new venture is going to strip away some support too.
Between the split vote, Fareage defending an insult to the army, Farrage having links to Epstien and having close ties to Trump and the ither stuff I’m not shocked.
Seemingly he assumed UK right wing would be as ok with nonce’s and insults to the soldiers as the US ones where.
Hopefully, people are waking up to the fact that Reform started out as Poundland MAGA and are now little more than a dumping ground for the loony wing of the Tory party.
Yeah, I would be embarrassed to vote for a party with that many members mentioned in the Epstein files. Reform-peados party more like!
Bookies odds are just a representation of numbers of people placing bets and whilst they shouldn’t be dismissed the best way, so far, to gage support is by trends over multiple polls….it does seem Reform has somewhat reached a peak (I hope). Will be interesting to see what happens in Gorton and Denton….this could bolster Reform, Green or neither. Also, we desperately need to change our voting system. If we don’t, there’s a possibility Reform could win a huge majority on a lower percentage of the vote than Labour did in the last GE.
That’s good, hope they never get in power. But I’m honestly also sick of this Labour government and their ridiculous campaign to irreparably change the way we use the internet. I can’t see any other government ever getting rid of the laws they bring in because they would benefit from them too much.
Outstanding. Farage is a cancer on Britain along with Tommy Robinson.
Reform’s success in last year’s council elections was a blessing in disguise. It’s given the country the time and the foresight to realise how utterly incompetent they are. It has, and will continue to, damage their general election chances.
„We’re going to fix the country!“
„Wooo! Brilliant!“
„We’re also taking in all of the bastards that broke it!“
„Wait, what the fuck? Why?“
„Because we don’t actually care about fixing things and are just wanting to get into power so our rich buddies can fuck you over even more!“
„That sounds pretty awful…“
„Look over there! It’s a woke trans immigrant muslim!“
They never were, the millionaires just wanted them to be so it’s in all the papers.
No decent person votes for them, and there are far more decent people than not
good. let’s keep this momentum going. there may be genuine concerns people have but Reform belong nowhere near government and certainly not the people to fix *anything.*
Shock news: Party stuffed full of the worst of the Tory party rejects is no longer as popular as they were.
Best news I’ve seen in a while.
Now we just need Starmer to stop Alienating the people, porn/digital ID etc. and stop making clearly bad choices then making u-turns when people are against it (great that they’re listening which is more than most, but it shouldn’t have to come to that in the first place). Now to beat out the new Rupert Lowe far right party, which if they do something about the boats they’ll soon win some more votes.
They got big, and took their base for granted. Their base voters did not want ex tories. That created a position restore could exploit.
Reform also refused to play ball with Elon musk, and now he is going to use X to destroy them and promote restore instead.
If you are left wing, this is a gift, the right wing vote is about to be split 3 ways.
Anyone from Kent, how has it been with Reform running things?
Reform are unfit for purpose, Farage doesn’t even want the job or to work in general.
Rupert Lowe is going to eat his lunch.
while I’d love to celebrate this I feel obliged to trot out my usual line – it’s 3 years until the next GE, any polling at this point is far from indicative. Any of the major parties could completely implode in that timeline.
Good. I hope the US “government” is making them look like a poor choice as well.
Sorry friends across the pond. We’re trying