„Es ist verfrüht“, das NDP-Spitzenrennen um Lewis, den Top-Spendensammler, auszurufen, sagen Politiker, wobei die Ranglisten-Abstimmung McPherson den Vorteil verschafft
„Es ist verfrüht“, das NDP-Spitzenrennen um Lewis, den Top-Spendensammler, auszurufen, sagen Politiker, wobei die Ranglisten-Abstimmung McPherson den Vorteil verschafft
6 Kommentare
He’s the favourite, but due to ranked ballots it’s not a done deal. If Avi fails to win on the first ballot and Heather or Rob can place second they will scoop up the second choice votes of the other and win the race.
I’d say the odds of winning are roughly as follows:
Avi – 70%
Heather – 20%
Rob – 10%
I feel the news is going to keep writing articles about how this race is „competitive“ for the next 2 months since that’s a more interesting news story than the actual fact that the race is over. McPherson’s numbers are embarrassing, she’s a distance 4th in fundraising in the Ontario/Quebec/BC, which makes victory near impossible. I doubt McPherson+Ashton even reach 40%, let alone the 50% needed to win.
I’m a bit concerned the NDP could have a similar situation to what’s happened with the CPC where the membership has become incapable of electing more centrist/moderate candidates. (especially with how much influence the activist wing of the party has in the East & central Canadian side of the party) and instead pushes for the more purist/partisan candidates etc.
McPherson’s advocates have this real bad habit of basing their entire pitch around Alberta supremacism, this might go a good way to explaining why she’s doing so badly in fundraising outside her immediate backyard, only placing 2nd in fundraising in 2 other provinces. The Alberta vote will of course be important in the final tally, and a good sized more important than it’s actual fraction of the population, but not exponentially so. Plenty of 2024 Leadership voters will have failed to renew. Plenty of the Alberta NDP members who did renew (amongst those who didn’t decline Federal membership) will support Lewis, he was raising 2nd most there before his big campaign stretch through there near the end of the membership cutoff.
I think it’s pretty clear that Lewis needs to win on the first ballot or at least come like 47%+ His politics are so toxic to the more centrist wing of the party, as well as the BC/Alberta/Manitoba provincial wings, that almost everyone supporting another candidate is going to have Lewis at the bottom of their preference list.
I will be voting for Lewis at this upcoming NDP convention, he is the only one who can make the party competitive electorally. He is also the only one who is the most likely to actually stand up for workers and the common people. McPherson is too much of a centrist and people like her are the reason the NDP has been failing electorally in the past decade. Being seen as nothing but Liberal Lite when NeoLiberalism has been ravaging the working classes is not conducive for a winning electoral strategy.