Wie Thailand zum „kranken Mann“ Asiens wurde

South-east Asia’s second-largest economy has been stuck at about 2 per cent growth for the past five years, with its pivotal drivers of consumption, manufacturing and tourism all in decline.

Growth as high as 13 per cent in 1988, when Thailand was hailed as an “Asian tiger”, is now a distant memory due to a rapidly ageing and shrinking population, high household debt and a sustained decline in competitiveness.

Making matters worse are prolonged political instability and frequent changes in leadership. The royalist-military establishment has been locked in a stand-off with reformist parties that have won the past two elections but have been blocked from power. Thailand has had three prime ministers in as many years.

Manufacturing has been on the decline for years, weighed down by weak domestic demand, an influx of cheaper Chinese goods and intense competition from newer manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam.

Household debt-to-GDP is close to 90 per cent, among the highest levels in Asia, as wages have remained stagnant. And Thailand’s population has been shrinking for four years, with the birth rate hitting a 75-year low in 2025.

Tourism, another economic engine, is sputtering and this had a knock-on effect on retail, agriculture and hotel construction, said Kitti. Thailand recorded 32.9mn foreign visitors in 2025, a 7 per cent fall from the previous year and still below the pre-pandemic peak of 40mn tourists in 2019.