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2 Kommentare
In my view, in the eyes of the Iranian regime, having a nuclear weapon is a safe guard against an attack by the US and Israel. In their eyes it is absolutely key to regime survival.
If Russia didn’t have nukes, it would have been beaten already.
If North Korea didn’t have nukes it would of been attacked by now.
If Ukraine didn’t give up its nukes…. yeah you get the point.
I am not trying to make a pro nuclear weapon argument but simply point out why the Iranian regime is so desperate to acquire them.
Make no mistake, Iran wants a nuclear weapon, its not a matter of if but „when“ they acquire it. In their view it’s the only way to deterr its much stronger foes Israel and the US.
Iran is the weakest it has ever been. The regime is hanging on by a thread, its proxies that we’re built up over the years have been decimated, Syria is no longer pro Iran, Russia is tied up in Ukraine.
As Syria is no longer a functioning State Israel has total freedom of airspace to fly its planes over Syria directly to Iran. That strategic window was not present under the old Syrian regime and in my view that is a huge key factor as to why Israel now has a window to attack Iran.
All of the above factors present a once in a lifetime window for the US and Israel to have a long sustained attack against Iran. Now that sufficient air defences are in place to protect against missles, the US and Israel will see this as a once in a lifetime opportunity to strike hard at Iran.
Iran knows this hence its heated threats to „start a regional war“.
If Trump didn’t impulsively abandon the JCPOA deal, this quagmire may have been avoidable. According to the IAEA inspections, they were obeying it.
I think nuclear expansion is inevitable in the future. Ukraine and Libya agreed to neuter their nuclear programs for geopolitical good-will. We saw how that unfolded. The same countries which signed deals with them attacked them.