Wird China in Russland einmarschieren, um jahrhundertealte Gebiete zurückzugewinnen?
Wird China in Russland einmarschieren, um jahrhundertealte Gebiete zurückzugewinnen?
16 Kommentare
Yes, they will. Russia stole those territories.
No, they won’t. The relations between the countries are cordial and they can get whatever they need from Russia through business deals. If anything other countries ostracizing Russia during this war and bringing them closer to China makes it even less likely.
Taiwan and maybe Japan if they decide to participate in it are the places that need to worry about China with China still relying on Taiwanese tech, but having a claim on the islands.
They won’t. Russia as a vassal is way more useful than those little bits of territory
No, they won’t. Not unless Russia collapses. China can get allthe resources from that area by economic leverage without the headaches of war and conquest.
The worse Russian economy becomes, the more compromises China can extract from them for a minimum own effort – without a single shot, and while still pretending to be the best of friends with Russia. The arm twisting remains in the background.
China is not out on territory collecting spree like Russia, they want resources and security. Sometimes they think security requires aggression like with their South China Sea shenanigans. But in this case, reconquest of Northern Manchuria adds zero to their security.
On the other hand, a constant background THREAT of taking back the area…
It depends on how weak Russia becomes. If Putin steps down now then Russia may be strong enough to retain diplomatic power. If he prolongs this war for another year or two Russia will be a failed state and China will do what it wants. That might mean absorbing or colonizing Russia.
Putin is not going to survive either outcome.
They don’t need to even russian commentators have already said there are more Chinese in parts of Russia than Russians
Oh, absolutely. However, China is the master at the long game. Don’t hold your breath.
Eventually yes. This territory also has the largest fresh water supply lake in the world if I’m not mistaken. Pretty important when you have to support well over a billion people.
They won’t have to invade, they’ll be handed to them on a silver platter…
Is this the anti-russian coping of the day?
No, this isn’t the 19th century. China doesn’t need to occupy territory to acquire minerals or strategic strong points.
no
No, they aren’t going to invade.
The better question is if Russia going to trade that land to China in exchange for China paying to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, and China buying gas that Russia pumps through that pipeline when they do built it etc.
Putin has blown Russia’s savings account and is now starting to mortgage stuff to China. Which is well known for „debt trap diplomacy“ with their belt and road strategy in Africa.
They will for sure. The problem is „when“.
Not in the immediate future, and probably simetime between some decades and a century in the futurw.
But China plays the long game so I haven’t any doubt they will sooner or later try to recreate whatever they perceive as the territories they’re entitled to.
The conventional wisdom is „no“, so probably not any time soon, but Russia is going to have to cede the territories eventually, it’s just a matter of when and how much war there needs to be for China to get it.
China owns Russia now so why waste the time?