Die Volatilität einer „multiplexen“ Welt und die strukturellen Gefahren einer globalen Ordnung

Submission statement:

This opinion article is written by Andi Widjajanto, a prominent Indonesian defense and international relations expert who held high-level roles under President Joko Widodo (2014-2024). Notably, he was directly sent by President Widodo to negotiate the normalization of relations with Israel before the Gaza War started.

The article demonstrates the Indonesian perspective on the global order in 2026, which is a fresh take, as we tend to focus on Western perspective. He observes that the approach of the US President Donald Trump today is what he called “flexible realism”: a highly transactional, unpredictable approach that prioritizes bilateral deals, trade surpluses, defense spending, and loyalty over consistent rules or alliances, as was the norm in the previous US-led rules-based international order. In his words, “in 2026, it appears the US is seeking assets rather than allies.”

He then highlights the challenges Indonesia faces as a middle power: how to pursue essential economic ties with China (to court Chinese investments in infrastructure and downstreaming in strategic sectors like nickel) or niche partnerships with other middle powers like Iran for energy, without provoking US backlash. Widjajanto warns that Trump would view such engagements not as neutral choices but as potential security threats or disloyalty.

He describes Indonesia’s traditional “dynamic equilibrium” or non-alignment strategy as increasingly untenable in the age of Trump. Instead, he advocates a pragmatic shift: Indonesia must adopt its own ruthlessly transactional diplomacy, framing China dealings as enabling benefits to the U.S. (for example by saying that “Chinese EV investments help us buy more American weapons and Boeing jets”), compartmentalizing relations (what he called „split-screen“ diplomacy), and insulating sensitive sectors to avoid spillover.

The article captures a sober, realist Indonesian perspective on navigating Trump’s America: balancing major powers rationally for survival and growth, while using careful, benefit-oriented rhetoric to appease Washington and mitigate risks in an era where interdependence is weaponized and global stability lacks reliable guardians. It also argues that idealistic appeals to norms or ASEAN centrality are no longer tenable in this era.