Ostasien steht vor einem demografischen Wendepunkt
Von vladgrinch
Ostasien steht vor einem demografischen Wendepunkt
Von vladgrinch
26 Kommentare
They are all far below the replacement level of 2.1
China really screwed up with their one child policy. India also historically had high birthrates, and theirs has started to slow more naturally but is still high. China is going to have a hard time increasing birthrates again.
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Curious as to how will this affect china’s aspirations
finally the birth rate graph isn’t flatlining
Why is Japan’s birth rate so high?
SK, Japan, and Taiwan are already employing foreign labor for blue collar essential jobs (farming, manufacturing, transportation, etc.), but what about China? I know that China has special arrangements with some African countries and I saw Africans working in China.
Time to import Indians
Most estimates put North Korea’s TFR at 1.8 so Ironically it might end up winning the long game against South Korea purely because it’s not actively going extinct
Wow, this is not a decline, like with the europeans, this is an implosion
Japan did A LOT of work to maintain their birth rate
It’s same in Europe and US
What can I do with this information?
LEAD ME TO CHINA AND IMMA FIX THAT SHIT
Why does Japan have by far the highest of them? Is the school system the least strict in East Asia, while still being very demanding?
In China’s case this is a manufactured crisis. Result from the idiotic one child policy of the government.
I mean sure East Asia is entering a demographic crisis but so is most of Europe with countries like Italy, Spain, and Portugal with a lower birth rate than Japan. And also Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand are all below replacement level and so is India. It is just the natural progression of things you cannot have infinite growth rates forever.
Damn China lower than Japan?! China is like 10x poorer 😱
I honestly dont think Immigration would fix this either. It takes generations for immigrants and their descendents to take up institutions that keep a country stable.
How do you do that if millions of people are dying of old age every year?
I imagine it’s going to look pretty similar to this in Europe within the next few decades. Anecdotal but I don’t personally know one single Czech Gen Zer who has or is planning to have children. I know a few Millennials who have or want children but I also know plenty who have no intention. I imagine it’s only going to get more pronounced in the near future.
I wonder what policies will china introduce to combat this. They are an authoratarian goverment with very strong power so they could introduce very strong systems that might be ableto raise the ferility. Childless tax system is already being discussed by ccp policy advisors and its possible they will tie pensions to the number of children you raise. We will never see a democracy take action like this which could actually work because of the public backlash.
Let’s wait and see before dooming. Projections don’t go on forever, and for context:
– China’s population stayed below 200M for most of its history.
– Japan, below 30M.
– Both Koreas, below 20M combined.
I see a bunch of countries with abnormally high populations. We should see 20th-century exponential population growth as an exception, not the norm.
Good
Is population decline actually a bad thing?
With the advancement of AI and Automation technology we could potentially be facing an unemployment crisis in a decade or two.
If that happens lower replacement rate today could be looked at advantageous in 20 years.
Also more resources per capita could help with sustainability and more space per capita could help with the housing crisis.
The only issue that needs to be solved is to tax the corporations who benefit from AI more… nevermind we are fucked.
Props for listing Hong Kong and its stats separately!
I guess the lack of population decline despite the low birth rate must be due to the influx of mainland Chinese.