[OC] Zeit bis zum unwiederbringlichen ökologischen Kollaps. Datenquellen: Phillips et al. (Naturhistorisches Museum BIl-Datensatz) | Kozicka et al. (GLOBIOM-IIASA Tierproduktion)
Von plantist-org
[OC] Zeit bis zum unwiederbringlichen ökologischen Kollaps. Datenquellen: Phillips et al. (Naturhistorisches Museum BIl-Datensatz) | Kozicka et al. (GLOBIOM-IIASA Tierproduktion)
Von plantist-org
4 Kommentare
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From [plantist.org](https://www.plantist.org/)
What do the percentages represent? Percentage of calories, of percentage of the meal in weight? Why is 0% plant-based the baseline? I don’t think it’s very common to eat nothing plant-based
The projections are based on two peer-reviewed datasets modeling the interaction between biodiversity decline and livestock production trajectories:
Biodiversity modeling: Phillips et al., Natural History Museum Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) – tracks species population decline across biomes under different land-use scenarios.
Livestock production: Kozicka et al., GLOBIOM-IIASA – projects agricultural land use and livestock production through 2050 under business-as-usual scenarios.
The collapse threshold (BII < 0.50) is based on planetary boundaries research indicating when ecosystem function becomes critically impaired. The model shows this threshold crossed around 2036-2037 under current dietary trajectories.
The 50%+ plant-based adoption scenarios show recovery because they release enough agricultural land to halt and reverse biodiversity loss before crossing irreversibility.
Key supporting research:
∙ Poore & Nemecek 2018 (Science) – land-use impact of food systems
∙ Ceballos et al. 2017 (PNAS) – biological annihilation and extinction acceleration
∙ Steffen et al. 2015 (Science) – planetary boundaries framework
Happy to clarify any specific modeling assumptions.
There’s a large difference between various forms of animal based protein – wild wish, farmed fish, beef, dairy, sheep, goats, pigs, chickens. But they are all lumped into one.