Ich weiß wenig über Portugal, aber die Schwankungen in der öffentlichen Meinung vor Ihrer Präsidentschaftswahl sehen selbst für 2026 ziemlich wild aus!
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/Graph_with_polling_for_the_2026_Portuguese_presidential_election.png
Von feartrich
3 Kommentare
It’s been a circus, complete with an harassment scandal just days ago and still lots of undecided voters and 5 very different candidates.
It’s worth noting we usually don’t care much about the presidential election because the president here doesn’t really hold much power. But it’s certainly been very entertaining
They actually do seem wild 😀
First these are Presidential elections and not all candidates announced oficially they were running at the same time. So you have older polls there where some candidates are ‚oficial‘ where others are expected but people aren’t yet sure about them.
Adding to the mix some of those candidates weren’t in politics, some we didn’t even knew their political placements while others are a bit hidden figures in politics. Most noticeable case is Gouveia e Melo that lost votes when he actually started talking about politics and exposing his ideas.
Then, the quality of polls. I’m not sure all those polls are actually good quality. Even if they are, you can clearly see there are about 5 major players for the elections which isn’t normal and obviously will make any polling very hard to get things right. The earlier polls probably have a huge number of undecided voters. Also, at the end we have a lot more polling and with better quality, really, I would discard any older ones as just ‚curiosities‘ with no predicting value, things really change.
There were a few minor scandals affecting a few candidates, altough I wouldn’t say it was a major factor.
Finally I think it’s just how these elections go. Presidential elections in Portugal are very personalized on the person running. Altough there are clear ‚party‘ candidates it is very very individualized so it’s more prone to shifts. I wouldn’t really pay much attention to older polls as I believe most people only started paying real attention in november or later, also with the debates between candidates around that time. Having several candidates from the same spectrum of politics also helps in the confusion. If it was for the government with the normal parties, I wouldn’t expect so many shifts without major scandals.
We still a significant number of undecided on the latest polls so you can see things are really, really tight. But yes, overall, it has been a strange run until the elections and prone to surprises.
Looking at that chart I can understand Gouveia e melo but for example the rise of Cotrim is very surprising and I expected Ventura to be very stable around the 20s. Seguro also starting low I can’t really justify.
Yh this year is very wild,
Gouveia de Melo is a military, not too much a politician or affiliated to any party, he was one of the firsts to annouce he would candidate to presidency, he had a good start, is very rare having military president candidates at Portugal, i think also war in Ukraine impacted that, but his campaign was confusing, one day he says one thing, other day he says another, people quickly saw politics is not for him.
Andre Ventura is affiliated to Chega party, 2nd popular party in the country, a far right party, typical populist nationalist called by many fascist, his followers are like a cult, people either love him either hate him, idk why the curve started low then grew a lot, maybe because of his populist campaign, he will solve all the problems in the country (healthcare, house prices, security, corruption, immigration), but without concrete measures. I’m surprised he started low, I was expecting him to be always high, in latest polls he is always in Top3, but his chances to win 2nd round are low.
Marques Mendes is affiliated to PSD party, rulling party at Portugal, social democrat, he’s been a known face in portuguese politics for too many years, not a surprise he has a stable high popularity. He is exactly the same kind of politician the we always saw in last decades from social democrats.
Antonio Jose Seguro is affiliated to PS party, 3rd party at Portugal, socialist, also a known man in portuguese politics, he is maybe the only reliable candidate in the left wing, guess if people want a left wing aligned president they should vote him. The problem is that mostly of people at Portugal are tired of left wing, the lasts gouvernements were left wing and left lot of problems, like high house prices and uncontrolled immigration who breakout our public services. Also lot of cases of corruption.
Cotrim Figueireido is affiliated to IL party, a recent liberal party not too much popular but it grew a little in last gouvernement elections. He was not too much popular but he kinda did a nice campaign and revealed a good option for right wing different from the socialist/social democrate that we had last decades and not so radical as Andre Ventura. Last days were complicated for him since 5/6 days before elections he got accused of sexual harassment in a instagram post.
I can’t explain the polls from last 6 months, i just think they may be unrealiable since a lot of candidates were not official. Most reliable polls are those from last 2 weeks. It was mainly being disputed by right wing candidates, but after one of them got a scandal, left wing grew a little also social democrate. Far right radical wing was always on top, but the polls for the 2nd row are very bad.