Zwischen Putin und Kadyrow passiert etwas SCHRECKLICHES
Zwischen Putin und Kadyrow passiert etwas SCHRECKLICHES
7 Kommentare
And just when the conventional thinking was one of them had bent over and the other had brought the lube.
I wonder of Kadyrov has the domestic capital he needs to go for independence though. He is strongly associated with Putin and has been his pupper for decades. Local independent movements have been suppressed by him.
Is he a believable ‚rebel‘ if he decides to break away from Russia? Or will the lack of Kremlin backing just lead to him being killed by his own people?
Nah, Kadyrov is the most privileged head in comparison to the other ethnic Republics. He can rule his republic with his own cultural norms and laws in contradiction to federal laws, he gets billions of rubles annually, and has a personal army. There’s no real reason for him to seek independence as he’s almost de facto autonomous.
Sure, things can change in the future when he dies, but not currently.
Come to think of it, i have not heard of Kadyrov since months, propably not this year entirely. Even with his health factored out that cab’t be healthy in Russia.
The best moment is now: True.
It has a high chance of causing a chain reaction: True.
However, Kadyrov is as dumb as a rock and he’s a coward. Thus if there were to be an initial uprising by a state, I would be inclined to think it would be a different state. And even if he somehow does initiate an uprising, one would have to hope he can put his ego aside and let somebody with some actual brains manage it.
Kadyrov isn’t like Zelensky to stay put during an attack, he’d be one to flee and is mainly focused on personal wellbeing. Thus, a Chechen uprising is highly hypothetical at the moment in my opinion. The better chance would probably be Kadyrov kicking the bucket and whoever comes next …
Whether his ill health and him possibly being close to deaths door, can actually make his balls descend and grow? I’m not getting my hopes up.
Now, if the US had an operational CIA, all that would have to be done is put this fear into Putin and that would cause resources to be moved from the Ukraine front to the Chechnya front and have the same effect.
Again? Didn’t we do this once already? Or twice?
edit: I agree that the timing is great for an independence push, but I don’t think Kadyrov will do it for a few reasons:
1 – Kadyrov owes his power to Putin, and they both know that
2 – Any army Kadyrov can use to defeat Putin…could also defeat Kadyrov and dethrone him. Kadyrov knows this, too — as does Putin. In fact, this is precisely the play Putin used to put a Kadyrov IN power.
3 – I don’t think Kadyrov has the economic situation to support this despite the fractures on Putin’s side.
4 – Kadyrov’s health is also, shall we say, fragile. There are windows all around, as well as lots of tea. Kadyrov just went through this a few months ago, I don’t think he’ll risk an assassination attempt because it could well succeed, and he is a strongman not a civic-minded king riding with his army to defend a homeland.
5- **tldr – Kadyrov wants power for himself more than he wants freedom for Checnya** and already betrayed his people once to get it (and, arguably, continues to betray them in order to retain that power). Given this, it is highly unlikely that he will accept the personal risk of losing that power He does not care about the greater good, only about his own power. The calculus is favorable for improving the greater good, but terrible for his retaining his position. Therefore, the odds of his leading a rebellion are very low.
What may happen is that someone who is *not* Kadyrov could make a push. But I don’t think Kadyrov will be the one to do it.