Japans gegenwärtige und zukünftige nationale Sicherheitsstrategie: Fünf zentrale Herausforderungen, die es zu beobachten gilt | CSIS
https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-present-and-future-national-security-strategy-five-key-challenges-watch
Japans gegenwärtige und zukünftige nationale Sicherheitsstrategie: Fünf zentrale Herausforderungen, die es zu beobachten gilt | CSIS
https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-present-and-future-national-security-strategy-five-key-challenges-watch
1 Kommentar
SS:
1. Funding the Buildup
>The yen’s sustained weakness has undercut the purchasing power of these investments… and Japan is using creative accounting to achieve the 2 percent target.
>There have been questions about how Japan is going to pay for and sustain this increasing spending on defense.
>For an economy carrying the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio—nearly 240 percent—the constraints around continued defense spending growth are significant.
2. Uncertain Domestic Politics
>Still a Critical Variable It remains unclear what the collapse of the LDP–Komeito partnership will mean for the pace, scale, and content of defense modernization.
>The coalition enjoys only a razor-thin majority and lacks a majority in the Upper House…There are open questions about the coalition’s durability and the LDP’s future electoral strength.
3. Japan’s New Defense Spending Priorities
>..next buildup plan is likely to draw lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War, including building out a suite of uncrewed systems under the “SHIELD’ initiative: the mass deployment of low-cost surface, sub-surface, land, and aerial drones for coastal defense. Space-based capabilities,..Enhanced cybersecurity..
>Some major programs are more questionable…Nuclear-powered submarines are an exceptionally costly endeavor without a clearly articulated strategic rationale.
4. Focus on Strengthening Indigenous Industry
>Japan’s 2022 defense strategy justifiably places a heavy emphasis on strengthening the country’s long-neglected defense industrial base..
>…Carries Risk…Japanese industry is already stretched by the demands of increased defense spending..
>In some critical technology areas,..Japan lags global competition. Inefficient allocation of resources…risks higher costs, lesser capability, or both.
5. U.S.–Japan Alliance Dialogue and Urgency Lagging at a Critical Time
>Under the surface, the machinery of the alliance has slowed.
>..absent the forcing function of regular senior engagements,..there is a risk of stagnation.
>The alliance has yet to develop a clear process for coordinating strike operations.