Das Carney-Smith-Abkommen wird Pipelines sicherlich nicht wieder „langweilig“ machen

I liked this analysis from Aaron Wherry. In particular, I found his analysis of potential downstream effects of Carney’s policy here:

>But in exchange for agreement on one major climate policy, the Carney government has potentially sacrificed another. Pending agreement on industrial carbon pricing, Alberta will be excluded from federal clean electricity regulations. And if Alberta is excluded from that policy, it stands to reason that other provinces will soon demand their own carve outs.

>Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, warned in a statement on Thursday that the exemption from clean electricity regulations and a softening of methane regulations „could trigger a race to the bottom on climate policy where other provinces seek special treatment and side deals over federal laws or regulations they object to.“

And the legacy of the Trudeau Liberals to build acceptance for oil and gas with environmental regulations:

>Guilbeault himself is something of a Rorschach test. Within the environmental movement, he was considered a credible pragmatist. Within conservative political circles, he was held out — at least after he joined Justin Trudeau’s cabinet — as an anti-oil bogeyman.

>“For some, I’m a radical. And for others, I’m not radical enough,“ he told me in an interview shortly after he became environment minister in 2021.

>What is perhaps largely forgotten now is that Guilbeault’s decision to run as a Liberal candidate in 2019 was most remarkable because he was doing so after the Trudeau government had decided to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline and expansion project (TMX). The famed environmentalist was joining a government that was actively building a pipeline.

>Before using public funds to take ownership of that pipeline, the Trudeau Liberals expended significant political effort and resources to build acceptance for that expansion, including a $1.5-billion marine protection plan. And to a large extent, those efforts were successful — despite fears that the Liberals would be wiped out in B.C. after approving TMX, the party won 11 seats in the province in 2019.

My gut is that backing oil and gas this hard without compromising or building consensus beforehand is going to cause more issues for Carney than he expects.