Mit einem Anteil von 92,1 % am Markt für Elektrofahrzeuge bei Neuwagen und einem Anteil von 21 % an allen Autos ist Norwegens Benzinnachfrage auf das Niveau von 2010 gesunken.
https://attaqa.net/2024/04/26/%d9%87%d9%84-%d8%aa%d8%a3%d8%ab%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d9%84%d8%a8-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%ac%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%b7%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%a9/
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The global trend toward decarbonization has sparked significant interest in the impact of increased electric vehicle (EV) sales on demand for Norwegian oil. A recent report sheds light on this topic, revealing surprising findings.
### Electric Vehicle Sales and Oil Demand
The UBS report reveals that 1/5th of Norway’s cars are EVs, which has resulted in demand for oil in Norway dropping to 2010 levels. **Norway’s oil demand peaked at 250,000 barrels of oil in 2018, and has since plunged to 200,000 barrels per day.**
In January 2024, electric cars made up a record 92.1% share of new cars sold in Norway.
Some have hoped for a larger impact, but there are a number of reasons oil demand has not fallen further.
Despite the significant increase in sales of zero-emission cars over the past few years; electric cars made up only 21% of the total car fleet at the end of 2023, while gasoline cars made up about 23% and diesel cars about 33%.
In addition, the size of the “pie” has become larger, with the number of cars in circulation rising significantly since 2010; **The total number of registered private cars rose from 2.3 million in 2010 to more than 3.2 million by the end of 2023.**
The number of registered petrol cars fell by half, from 1.55 million in 2010 to 0.76 million in 2023, but, with the share almost unchanged, the number of registered diesel cars rose by 32% from 0.80 million to 1.07 million over the same period.
The number of zero-emission cars increased from 2,000 cars in 2010 to 0.69 million units by the end of 2023.
**Hence, demand for gasoline decreased by about 49% since the beginning of 2010**, while demand for diesel increased by about 8% during the same period.
Other theories are that heavily subsidized EVs are often second cars used for shorter distances, while gasoline cars are used for longer trips and more miles, and that, of course, heavy fuel users such as diesel trucks and such, [have not been electrified as heavily yet.](https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/statistikk/bilparken)
Giovanni Stanovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Bank who participated in preparing the report, wrote: “Of course, we also note that oil demand does not depend solely on cars, as our estimates indicate that passenger cars represent about a quarter of total oil demand.”
There has been rapid growth in demand for non-transportation-related petroleum products.
Giovanni added: “We reiterate our view that global demand for oil has not yet reached its peak… and we still believe that it will increase over the coming years, then stabilize and begin to gradually decline at some point during the next decade… and most of the growth is likely to be in developing countries.” „.
“**In our view, the trend toward increased fuel efficiency and the growing number of electric vehicles will contribute to an expected peak in (global) demand for gasoline and diesel, most likely sometime this decade**,” Giovanni said.
He stressed that the main driver of oil demand growth during the next few years is likely to come from sectors other than transportation.
The report expected that the growth of annual demand for oil would slow in the coming years. The average growth rate has reached about 1.2 million barrels per day over the past two decades. Carbon capture technologies could change the landscape for fossil fuels, pushing those timelines even further