Die KI-Branche basiert auf einer großen, unbewiesenen Annahme | Zusätzlich zu den Prognosen über die Erreichung künstlicher allgemeiner Intelligenz und den Ersatz von Millionen menschlicher Arbeitskräfte stellt sich die banale Frage, wie lange KI-Chips halten werden.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-24/the-ai-industry-is-built-on-a-big-unproven-assumption
7 Kommentare
They don’t last as long as humans if you are measuring it by the normal obsolescence timeframe.
The first of those million replaced workers will be in chip manufacturing.
Duh.
lol they’ll just spend more money they don’t have to cover the balance
This narrative that the only justification for AI spending is AGI drives me crazy. We do not need AGI to make massive investment worthwhile. Who knows when or if we ever reach AGi but there are a thousand other use cases that are well within reach that will also unlock extraordinary amounts of value.
Without AGI you can still automated the entire transportation industry, a massive amount of factory labor, tons of household chores, and a wide range of medical activities. Why do all these things (and much much more) get completely ignored?
This is the part of the AI discussion almost nobody talks about because it isn’t flashy but it might be one of the most important. Everyone is predicting AGI timelines, automation shocks, trillion-dollar industries… yet the entire ecosystem is sitting on a pretty fragile hardware assumption: that GPUs can run nonstop, at extreme loads, for years, without failing faster than expected.
A trader i follow did some research and apparently, big tech is depreciating these boards over 7 years, 15% a year if i remember correctly…..sooo these multi-hundred watt boards are gonna run under heavy load 24/7 for SEVEN years. It’s amazing what you can hide in notes in an earnings report.
This AI crash is going to be biblical.
Like any hardware, those components would have shelf life similar to any existing data center . So essentially needing replacement every x years. That’s where the real business happens!