„Wir stellen fest, dass Experten einem groß angelegten nuklearen Ereignis bis 2045 eine mittlere Wahrscheinlichkeit von 5 Prozent zuschreiben, während Superforecaster eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1 Prozent schätzen.“
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/events/risk-large-scale-nuclear-war-judgmental-forecasting-approach
3 Kommentare
Submission statement: The linked article looks at a particular way of estimating the likelihood of nuclear war. Do results seem reasonable? Does having a probability at all, and if so what would your guess be? What are some good methods to think about the chance of nuclear war? In some sense I do buy the 1 to 5%,
The following submission statement was provided by /u/NunoSempere:
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Submission statement: The linked article looks at a particular way of estimating the likelihood of nuclear war. Do results seem reasonable? Does having a probability at all, and if so what would your guess be? What are some good methods to think about the chance of nuclear war? In some sense I do buy the 1 to 5%,
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Please reply to OP’s comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1oui7oc/we_find_that_experts_assign_a_median_5_percent/nobu1mr/
Let’s not make a betting market for this one. Nobody should have a financial incentive to raise the probability of a large scale nuclear event.