![[OC] Die Chancen für María Corina Machado stiegen Stunden vor der offiziellen Bekanntgabe des Friedensnobelpreises](https://www.bytesde.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/lw30xpj6pbuf1-1024x1024.png "[OC] Die Chancen für María Corina Machado stiegen Stunden vor der offiziellen Bekanntgabe des Friedensnobelpreises")
Hallo, ich teile diese Geschichte Diagramm, das zeigt, wie María Corina Machados Chancen Stunden vor der offiziellen Bekanntgabe des Friedensnobelpreises stiegen.
Die Organisatoren des Friedensnobelpreises untersuchen ein mögliches Leck, nachdem Online-Wetten zugunsten der venezolanischen Oppositionsführerin nur wenige Stunden vor ihrer Bekanntgabe als diesjährige Gewinnerin stark angestiegen sind.
Bis kurz nach Mitternacht Osloer Zeit am Freitag erreichte Machado auf Polymarket, einem der weltweit größten Prognosemärkte, eine Umfrage von etwa 3,7 %. Aber ihre Chancen stiegen innerhalb von Minuten auf 31,5 % und dann auf 73,5 %, obwohl sie vor der Preisbekanntgabe um 11 Uhr weder von Experten noch von den Medien als Favoritin eingestuft wurde.
Das Nobel-Institut bestätigte Berichte norwegischer Medien, dass es die Angelegenheit untersucht.
Quelle: Polymarket
Victoria – FT-Social-Team
Von financialtimes
24 Kommentare
Betting on nobel? What a crappy thing jeeez.
Also, who the hell bets on a wannabe dictator for peace nobel? People are dellusional.
The worlds biggest loser loses again. Nice to see he’s consistent.
the betting markets are such a terrible idea. it’s obvious than insiders are going to bet on things and they have no way of tracking it.
I bet on Manny Machado. Padres early exit against the Cubs must have ruined his chances.
Why did trump got nominated in the first place?
apologies for being “that guy” but this is showing probability. odds are inversely correlated with probability, so her odds would have collapsed (reduced dramatically, eg from 10/1 to 2/1) as the probability increased.
Sartre turned one of these meaningless prizes down. Tells me all I need to know about it.
Trump wasn’t even a nominee
Polymarket is just a tool for insiders to get rich. You see this happen on nearly every single bet that involves an announcement, political and business.
Yulia Navalnaya’s line looks like donald trump’s signature.
So you’re saying the betting markets were spectacularly wrong until the rumors we all heard started coming out. Great job betting markets.
Well yeah, Polymarket is the hands-down favorite for insider trading
Betting markets are no longer useful at all. Back when only hardcore political junkies used them it made sense, you had people who were extremely tuned in to politics controlling the markets movements.Now you have plenty of idiots who just throw money on whatever candidate they like
Case in point, trump shouldn’t be on this chart at all, nobody with more than 5 brain cells actually thought he had a chance, let alone thought he would win, but because he has legions of morons blinded to reality he shows up.
My favorite fact I’ve learned today about this woman is that she was a leader of a coup in Venezuela in 2002, what the hell is this award even for.
Looks like Trump is flat-lining.
The SEC let celebrities get away with rug-pulling crypto coins and now they let blatant insider trading happen.
Such a useless organization run by greedy idiots.
When are we renaming it the Nobel regime change prize?
No way were DJT’s odds ever that high
Polymarket, gross….I first heard of them for being The Young Turks sponsor or something….ohh yeah the Polymarket studios, ugh.
How in the actual fuck does trump have a line that’s not negative.
Why were Trump’s odds so high?
This lady invited a foreign nation to invade her country to overthrow the government. And she got a noble peace prize. This is a U.S. puppet.
Trump didn’t do anything last year to merit anything.
These kinds of betting markets are crazy because they largely depend on insider trading over data that has no real reason to be protected. Who really would give a shit if the winner of the prize got leaked a bit early if these markets didn’t exist? It would be gauche to do so but it wouldn’t be *that* bad.