Die französische Regierung ist in Aufruhr. Seit 2024 gibt es 5 verschiedene Premierminister, die jüngste, die einige Wochen nach Beginn des Jobs zurückgetreten sind. Alle sind aus dem gleichen Grund gegangen. Der französische Staat wird immer mehr verschuldet, um die Ansprüche seiner Bürger zu zahlen, aber Politiker können sich nicht dazu bringen, sie zu kürzen oder mehr zu besteuern. Jetzt liegt das Land nahe einer Schuldenkrise mit störenden Zinszahlungen.
Die Situation in Frankreich ist akut, aber andere entwickelte Nationen wie die USA, Japan und Großbritannien sind ebenfalls nahe der gleichen Krise und aus den gleichen Gründen. Es ist eine strukturelle demografische Verschiebung. Die Alterung von Bevölkerungsgruppen in der gesamten Industrieländer ist keine entfernte Herausforderung mehr. Es ist jetzt eine lebende Krise, und ihre finanziellen, politischen und sozialen Auswirkungen beginnen sich zu kaskaden. Bestehende Lösungen für dieses Problem – wie die Masseneinwanderung – haben ihren Kurs geführt.
Ein Schulden -Jubiläum ist die Stornierung aller Schulden einer bestimmten Klasse, und sie wurden in der Geschichte viele Male durchgeführt, um in die Antike zurückzukehren. Ist es eine Idee, die für eine Wiederbelebung fällig ist?
1. Frankreich, die alternde Bevölkerung und die Zukunft der staatlichen Lebensfähigkeit…
2. Reduzierung der Schulden durch ein modernes Schulden -Jubiläum
The developed world's future economic crisis of shrinking birth rates has arrived early in France and is causing its government to collapse. Is a Debt Jubilee the answer?
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
13 Kommentare
Help me understand what types of debt would be excused?
The biggest problem with one country doing some mass “debt cancellation” in modern times is that it will have economic impacts beyond that country. We live in a global economy now and there is no good economic prediction model I’m aware of for cancelling private industry debts on this scale. Moreover the global market is as much perception of the market as the hard numbers and that perception drives further investment, or in cases like this can lead to a mass retraction and the following recession/depression it can cause.
>Existing solutions to this problem – like mass immigration – have run their course.
Have they?
I don’t think governments ever considered immigration a solution. The shift towards the far right ostracized it even more.
No control, no serious plans for integration and a rise in criminality as a result.
There are no other solutions really. France, Italy, Greece, Spain killed their middle class with stagnant salaries and absurd taxes effectively killing the range of people that were supposed to have kids along with it.
Japan has a shitty work/life balance that makes it harder to have kids and their relationship with intimacy just grew weirder with time…
Doesn’t matter the reasons, we are not having kids anymore and this isn’t going to change.
The elephant in the room is capitalism itself.
This infinite growth mindset while we live in a closed/finite ecosystem.
I hope we move to an economic system based on ecological balance.
If you have money to spend on this problem you’d want to target it at young mothers.
For instance „baby bonuses“, free childcare, more maternity leave, subsidised accommodation etc have been shown to work to increase birth-rates.
Just mass cancelling boomer debt only makes the situation worse.
I know a big topic of discussion among people of my generation—millennials— is that we’ve been paying into Social Security networks for 20-30 years now and yet we are increasingly wondering if ever going to actually get the benefits of them, and it seems like the people who’s retirement we’re currently supporting don’t even feel the need to leave any crumbs for us. They’ve taken everything of value and now they’re sitting on their big hill looking down at us and telling us to pull ourselves up by the bootstraps while we are forced to pay into their retirement pyramid scheme.
How would a debt jubilee fix the issue, if the root cause of spending beyond your means isn’t addressed?
Namely, who is going to lend, if the assumption is future debt will also be forgiven?
The problem with a debt jubilee is who holds the debt.
For example, pension funds often buy government bonds as a safe way to invest money and pay pensions. This jubilee would destroy a big chunk of those assets. Pensions would be cut or unpaid.
If you restrict the jubilee to debt held outside of the country, you have ensured that no one will lend you money for the foreseeable future.
And it won’t fix the underlying issue where the ratio of retired to workers keeps increasing.
The reason why no one has kids is because of the aging population. Our economy is too dependent on keeping older people happy due to the past social contracts.
„Shrinking birth rates“ are not „causing“ economic problems in any country any more than „inaccurate predictions about future birth rates“ are.
The sexism inherent in the ideological assumptions and language used to discuss the topic is disgusting, FAR from „developed,“ and rings of something straight out of the 18th century, or worse.
There is a solution: Raise taxes, specifically on the wealthy.
Taxes were higher in the 90s. Countries cut taxes and now they’re kneedeep in debt and saying „we can’t do anything!“. Except they can. Just. Raise. Taxes.
Do it at the beginning of the term, there’ll be a bunch of grousing and pain, but you’ve got 4-5 years to use that money to stabilise things and even use some extra to improve public services.
Money doesn’t matter, it’s just a question of allocating resources. Large numbers of people (in Europe) are unemployed or underemployed. Raise taxes, pay them, and put them to work in public services, and building industrial/energy infrastructure
birthrate isn’t the issue, too many illegals putting pressure on a strained system.
I think you’re missing some key details. The French government is in turmoil because each party wants the others to fully subscribe to their respective agendas. There’s many reasons for this, but one unifying factor is that they want to push Macron out, and by disagreeing and refusing to compromise, they make him and every PM he appoints look like failures.
Their economic issues are also very real, but their economy is still bigger and better than Germanys.