Der Atomkrieg zwischen Indien und Pakistan könnte dazu führen, dass die meisten Länder 50 bis 100% der Lebensmittelimporte durch klimaforientierte Ertragsverluste bei großen Exporteuren verlieren, während die globale Störung von Dünger, Pestizid und Kraftstoffproduktion die Importe um 25-50% durch einheitlich reduzierte Erträge weltweit verringern könnte.

>Shifting dietary patterns could also help decrease vulnerability to trade disruptions. A move toward plant-based diets with more locally-produced fruits, vegetables, and legumes could reduce dependence on international grain trade, as much of the currently traded grain (especially soya beans and maize) is used for animal feed rather than direct human consumption. This conversion of grain to animal products is inefficient from an energy perspective. However, this strategy presents a trade-off: while reducing animal feed imports would decrease trade dependencies, it might also reduce the system’s overall flexibility. Current livestock systems, despite their inefficiencies, create a buffer by maintaining large stores of grain that could be redirected to human consumption during crises. Additionally, ruminants can digest cellulose that humans cannot, potentially providing an additional food source during catastrophes. Therefore, while dietary shifts toward plant-based foods could improve local food security under normal conditions, maintaining some animal agriculture may provide valuable system redundancy for extreme scenarios. The optimal balance likely varies by region based on local agricultural conditions and trade relationships.