Meinung | So kann Trump einen Krieg über Taiwan verhindern

>China and the United States are closer than they’ve ever been to a war over Taiwan.

>A dangerous feedback loop has set in over the past decade: Taiwanese defiance toward China provokes aggressive bluster from Beijing, leading to stronger rhetorical support for Taiwan in Washington. The self-reinforcing pattern repeats itself. Each time, it moves Taiwan more to the center of the U.S.-China relationship, increases the risk of conflict and provokes fretful analysis over what to do about this seemingly intractable situation.

>This arc was not preordained. Nor is it immutable, and in Donald Trump, the United States has a norm-defying president uniquely positioned to reverse it.

>The Trump administration’s best bet for avoiding war would be to boldly seek a fresh deal with China, restoring equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait by offering to dial back U.S. defense buildups in the region and putting Taiwan on notice that American military backup is neither assured nor boundless.

Jennifer Kavanagh is a military analyst. Her argument is that deescalation would be well received by the Chinese security apparatus, and that the US should take advantage of an opportunity to negotiate. Neither the US nor China is keen on the prospects of war, which would likely be one of the bloodiest conflicts in recent history. Victory for China is not at all assured, and defeat would be humiliating for the CCP and could destabilize its economy and ruling government. Kavanagh argues that the US is in a position to trade off their boundless military support for Taiwan in exchange for China walking back deadlines to reunification, which currently are the greatest source of danger. This move would be unpopular in Washington, but Trump is uniquely positioned to successfully advance an anti-establishment foreign policy of exactly this kind.

China invades->Trump give 2 weeks final warning->walks back from Taiwan declaring „who knew it would be so complicated“->“ Taiwan shouldnt start war and go beg others for missile“->???->MAGA