„Kurz gesagt, wenn die Geldpolitik wie das Fahren eines Autos ist, dann ist das Auto einen unzuverlässigen Tachometer, eine neblige Windschutzscheibe und eine Tendenz, unvorhersehbar und mit einer Verzögerung des Gaspedisators oder der Bremse zu reagieren.“ -Ben Bernanke, Dezember 2004
X-Achse ist Arbeitslosigkeit, y-Achse ist Kern-CPI
Das Ziel jedes Fed -Stuhls ist es, so nahe wie möglich an der Zielzone zu sein. Ich habe 2–3% Inflation und 4–6% Arbeitslosigkeit als raue „Zielzone“ beschattet – 2% ist das offizielle Ziel, und die meisten Schätzungen der Nairu landen rund 4–6%.
Ich kann nur sagen, dass Greenspan wirklich die Ziege war.
Von DataVizHonduran
22 Kommentare
Source: Fred, Tools: Python and Matplotlib. TIL matplotlib is eons faster than plotly at rendering animations.
Why fill in these shapes? The first and last point for each Fed Chair is unconnected in time and I don’t think the area enclosed by these curves is meaningful.
Greenspan had it easy. Powell has a pretty comparable profile aside from COVID. And Powell had to deal with Trump.
Thanks for sharing this. Would you be able to layer in target rate chanfe with a colour instead of the fed minister
This is one of the better posts I’ve seen recently. Thanks.
It’s not a game where the person who gets closest wins. It’s who can overcome dire economic headwinds and lead the economy through it, as much as getting closest to target.
That’s why Ben Bernanky would have my vote over Alan Greenspan. Led the US out of an incredibly difficult spot.
People don’t have any idea how important a competent independent reserve bank is, look at Türkiye…
Volcker is the goat.
Greenspan didn’t need to do the hard shit he did because Volcker did it.
Greenspan was the best. The economy’s fine-tuner.
And for context, raising the fed rate is expected to move the point down and to the right, while lowering the fed rate is expected to move the curve up and to the left.
There is no simple policy that we know of that consistently moves the point down and to the left.
Greenspan and Yellen the only ones to keep it remotely near the box
If anything this is more ammo that the Phillips Curve is a lie
This is beautiful! Why isn’t this how the data is always shown, fantastic job!
Did you also post the static image with boxes representing each Chair’s inflation and unemployment ranges? This is an outstanding follow up. It’s an absolutely great visualization.
I wonder if there is a good fiscal policy follow up. Perhaps the high and low bounds of GDP growth and budget deficit/surplus? They aren’t targets per se like 2% inflation and remaining within the NAIRU but do represent the effectiveness of spending/tax collection well.
Finally, some beautiful data presented in a beautiful way.
This is a great illustration of the maxim „soldiers are always preparing to fight the last war“. Every chair has had very different conditions, and every significant deviation from target has been in a different direction, so the lessons learned from the last one don’t directly apply to the next one.
Cool way to present this data. I might use this idea
Wow this is great! I love the different color segments.
It’s definitely one of the best presentations I have seen!
One small note to make about this visualization is that its using core CPI while the Fed targets core PCE. CPI tends to be overestimate inflation a little bit compared to PCE, so this would look slightly different with PCE vs CPI.
This is truly a first rate post. Well done.
Weird cut but watching this felt like playing Kerbal Space Program with a rocket that’s way too fucking big.
Come on, just keep it on the ~~prograde vector~~ fed target, come on, nearly there, fuck fuck fuck shit fuck dammit fuck, okay we got this, ease it back around, alright, FUCK
I’m ngl, I’m so chronically online that I thought I was looking at CS Spray patterns
Man for all the hate Greenspan got he seemed to do the best over all under him at staying. The target.